EU Leaders Put Off Moves to Pressure Moscow

Views on BG | September 2, 2008, Tuesday // 00:00

from The Wall Street Journal

September 2, 2008

By MARC CHAMPION and JOHN W. MILLER in Brussels, and DAVID GAUTHIER-VILLARS and ALESSANDRA GALLONI in Paris

The European Union pledged Monday to help Georgia recover from Russia's continuing military intervention, but fears over Europe's dependence on Russia for energy and of splitting the EU prevented moves to pressure Moscow.

As hundreds of thousands of Georgians protested in the streets of Tbilisi against the presence of Russian troops, the EU's emergency summit in Brussels produced condemnation of Russia's actions in Georgia and of its decision to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two separatist territories in Georgia, as independent.

"The question is, what does Russia want?" said French President Nicolas Sarkozy at a postsummit press conference. He said it was now up to Moscow to decide whether to isolate itself politically by keeping its troops in Georgia or else withdraw and begin talks on status.

Russian officials including President Dmitry Medvedev, made similar demands in the run-up to Monday's summit, warning the EU would have to decide as it responds to events in Georgia what kind of relationship it wants with Moscow.

EU leaders agreed in their final statement to send Mr. Sarkozy and EU officials to Moscow Sept. 8 to assess Russian intentions. After that, the bloc will draw up a full response ahead of an EU-Russia summit in November, effectively giving Moscow two months' grace before any potential EU action.

The EU also said it would set up a donor conference for Georgia in the near future, discuss new free-trade and visa-facilitation agreements with Georgia and send an assessment team to Tbilisi ahead of a potential EU monitoring mission to help observe the cease-fire.

Still, the summit's final statement did little to penalize Moscow beyond suspending meetings on a new trade-and-investment agreement until Russia has pulled its troops back in accordance with the cease-fire deal Mr. Sarkozy brokered last month. Russia says it is already abiding by the deal.

"Russia represents a huge part of the world for Europe," French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said in an interview, summing up Europe's caution in provoking Russia. "If you ask me what does...this or that [Caucasus] country mean to Europe - all of this represents energy, gas and oil."

Russia is the EU's biggest supplier of natural gas and oil.
Mr. Kouchner said it wasn't realistic to adopt a confrontational approach toward Russia.

Instead, he said, Europe needed to continue its dialogue with Russia, a country that is a key player on hot-button diplomatic issues, including attempts to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions.

"The U.S. isn't going to wage war against the Russian army; that's clear," Mr. Kouchner said, his spacious office adorned with detailed military maps of Georgia. "We can't act according to the immediate interests of a U.S. administration that is going to change, or according to the impatience - which is totally legitimate - of certain former Communist-bloc countries."

EU leaders soft-pedaled any moves that could split the bloc, or the trans-Atlantic alliance - a longstanding Russian goal that Western diplomats say Moscow again appears to be pushing hard.

"The Georgian issue has brought the EU closer together," said Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, who has been closely involved in the Georgia crisis. The U.S., too, he said, has worked hard to keep in step with the EU. He said he had spoken with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice 15 times since the crisis started, and he showed off cuff links she gave him.

The U.S. has been "very quiet about what our assistance plans are and we've been reticent about the negative steps we may take toward Moscow" because Washington wants the EU to take the lead in addressing the Georgia crisis, said Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew J. Bryza, the U.S. State Department's point man in the Caucasus. He was speaking in the margins of a debate on the Georgia crisis hosted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Brussels Monday.

Still, tensions remain between, on the one side, the U.S. and EU countries such as Poland that see Russia's actions as an immediate threat, and, on the other, EU members that don't. "Either we will get a united, effective EU response or we will not be credible," said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, speaking at the debate.

While Moscow's message to the EU has been largely conciliatory, reassuring Europe that no return to the Cold War is on the table, Russia's leaders have made clear their desire to see Europe distance itself from Washington's tougher line on events in Georgia.

Russia's President Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in recent days have also sought to paint Russia as a new power center willing to stand up to U.S. hegemony. They have denounced Washington's supporters in Europe as shortsighted stooges and called for construction of a new security organization in Europe to supercede the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

"The authority will decline of those countries who've taken the line of servicing the foreign-policy interests of other countries," Mr. Putin told German ARD television late Friday, in an apparent reference to U.S. allies in Europe. Poland, for example, recently signed an agreement to host U.S. ballistic-missile interceptors. "We're relying on the support of our European partners," said Mr. Putin.

Russian officials appear increasingly confident the example of Georgia will make NATO's European members less willing to consider expanding the West's military alliance further into Russia's newly defined sphere of influence, a continuing U.S. goal.

"The unified West that was there in the Cold War is gone and won't come back," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, an influential Russian foreign-policy journal. On Russia's reassertion of a sphere of influence, he added: "I think, under certain conditions, Europe would be willing to accept this, but not the United States."

U.S. Vice Preisdent Dick Cheney makes a tour of U.S. allies among Russia's ex-Soviet neighbors next week, avoiding Moscow.

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