The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) has updated its GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria for the 2025–2027 period, showing a more optimistic outlook than its June 2025 projections. The central bank now expects the country’s real GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2025, up from the 2.9% previously forecasted. For 2026 and 2027, BNB anticipates annual GDP growth of 3.1%, compared with the earlier 2.9% estimate for both years.

According to the BNB’s “Macroeconomic Forecast,” private consumption will remain the primary driver of economic expansion. However, the report highlights that subdued external demand for Bulgarian goods and services, coupled with certain domestic factors, will continue to exert downward pressure on growth during the forecast period.

Regarding inflation, the central bank projects that the average annual rate will stay at roughly 3.5% in 2026, similar to 2025, before easing to 3.2% in 2027. This suggests a relatively stable inflationary environment as Bulgaria’s economy continues on a moderate growth trajectory.

Considering the current exchange rate of approximately 1 euro to 1.96 leva, the projected GDP growth reflects a continued strengthening of economic activity in the country, with sustained domestic demand offsetting weaker foreign trade performance.