Data released by the Ministry of Finance, covering budget execution for February 2026 and preliminary estimates for March 2026, indicate a marked deterioration in Bulgaria’s fiscal position. Additional comparative analysis published by the Fiscal Council highlights the figures in the context of an extended budget framework, described as an atypical financial situation.

According to the report, the cumulative budget deficit for March reaches 1.5 billion euros, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP. This represents the highest level recorded for the month in 15 years, with comparable data going back to 2010.

For March alone, the deficit is estimated at 1.7 billion euros, or 0.8% of GDP, which is identified as the highest monthly figure in two decades, since 2007.

The Ministry of Finance attributes the widening gap primarily to increased expenditures under the consolidated fiscal program, including Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget. Total spending under the program reached 11.5 billion euros by March 2026, compared with 9.6 billion euros in the same period of 2025.

Officials and analysts note that the rise in expenditure is largely driven by higher social security and healthcare-related payments, including pensions, as well as increased personnel costs and capital expenditure. The growth in wages and pensions is linked to indexation measures that took effect in March.

Capital investment also recorded a significant increase, mainly connected to the accelerated implementation phase of projects under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, which contributed to higher fiscal outflows.

The Fiscal Council warns that the early-year deterioration of the budget balance signals the presence of deeper fiscal imbalances that cannot be fully explained by seasonal or technical factors alone. It further cautions that, without corrective policy measures, there is a risk of a sustained weakening of the fiscal position and deviation from planned budget targets.