A yellow warning for significant rainfall has been issued across the western half of Bulgaria, covering areas including Montana, Vratsa, Sofia City and Sofia Region, Lovech, Kyustendil, Blagoevgrad, Pleven, as well as parts of Plovdiv, Stara Zagora, Gabrovo, Pazardzhik, Smolyan and Kardzhali. Authorities expect the most intense precipitation in these regions as weather conditions begin to shift at the end of March.

According to NIMH forecaster Anastasia Stoycheva, Bulgaria is heading toward a sharp weather change in the final days of March, marked by heavy rain and a noticeable drop in temperatures. She notes that March so far has been generally colder than usual in most parts of the country. Western Bulgaria has seen slightly above-normal temperatures, while much of the rest of the country has remained at or below average values, with deviations reaching around minus 2 degrees.

In terms of rainfall, March has been considerably drier compared to February, which saw precipitation levels four to five times above normal. This month, most regions have recorded only 20% to 50% of expected monthly rainfall, while parts of Southern Bulgaria and the Central Balkan region have reached between 50% and 80% of normal levels.

A cyclone moving across the Balkans is expected to bring widespread precipitation, including heavy rain and snow, particularly in mountainous areas and valleys in Western Bulgaria, such as around Sofia. Short-lived snowfall is also possible in the capital on Saturday morning, though it is not expected to last long. Over the following days, rainfall will continue, with local accumulations reaching between 35 and 50 liters per square meter.

Temperatures are forecast to fall further at the beginning of April. At around 1,500 meters altitude, values may drop to around minus 5 degrees, creating conditions for snow even in lower valley regions. After a brief period of warming at the start of the week, another cold spell is expected around April 4.

Forecast models for April, at least until mid-month, indicate a predominantly wetter pattern with temperatures below seasonal norms. The weather is expected to alternate between rainfall, short warming phases and renewed cold periods. Heavier precipitation will mainly affect western parts of the country, though as cyclonic systems pass, eastern regions may also be impacted.

Stoycheva adds that although spring may appear delayed, the precipitation is beneficial for agriculture and natural ecosystems. Snowfall in higher elevations will gradually melt and contribute to soil moisture. She advises monitoring official warnings for heavy rainfall, although the current flood risk remains low. Cold-air intrusions typical for late March and early April are expected to continue, with frequent shifts between warmer and colder conditions.