The National Statistical Institute (NSI) has projected that annual inflation in Bulgaria will ease in January 2026, falling to 3.6% from 5% recorded at the end of last year. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.7% compared to December, which saw a more modest increase of 0.1%.

Certain categories are expected to record notable monthly price changes. Prices for personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services are estimated to rise by 2%, while insurance and financial services may increase by 1.9%. Restaurant and hotel services are expected to grow by 1.6%. In contrast, clothing and footwear are projected to fall by 4%, and information and communication costs may decline by 0.3%.

The NSI also provided harmonized inflation figures, estimating a monthly increase of 0.6% and an annual rate of 2.3%. For the so-called small consumer basket, which reflects expenditures of the lowest-income 20% of households, monthly inflation is projected at 0.6%, with annual inflation reaching around 3%. Within this group, food prices are expected to rise 0.9% month-on-month, service costs by 0.7%, and non-food goods are anticipated to remain largely unchanged compared to December 2025.

The NSI noted that these preliminary “express” estimates are based on approximately 90% of registered prices for the month, with the remaining data incorporated into the calculation once final figures are available. The official inflation report for January 2026 will be published on February 16.