A new survey by the “Sova Harris” agency indicates that six political formations would enter the next Bulgarian National Assembly, based on data collected between April 2 and 6 among 800 respondents through standardized face-to-face interviews. The study was commissioned by the newspaper “Trud” and outlines a relatively stable but competitive electoral landscape.

According to the findings, Rumen Radev's formation, “Progressive Bulgaria,” leads with 33.6%, followed by GERB with 19%. In third place is the “We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria” (WCC-DB) coalition with 11.2%, while the "Movement for Rights and Freedoms" (DPS) follows with 9.7%. “Revival” is placed fifth with 7.8%, and the "Bulgarian Socialist Party" (BSP) coalition closes the parliamentary group with 4.5%. All remaining parties remain below the 4% threshold required for entry.

The agency notes that public attitudes remain relatively stable over the past month, though with signs of increased electoral engagement as election day approaches. “As a result of the upcoming vote, a new bipolar model is emerging in our political space,” the analysis states, highlighting growing consolidation among undecided voters.

Sociologist Vasil Tonchev pointed out that turnout could reach around three million voters, noting that anti-vote-buying measures may influence participation levels. He also referenced previous elections, suggesting that similar enforcement actions in the past were associated with lower turnout. According to him, “there is a large group of people who are taught to vote only for a fee.”

The survey further highlights that inflation and rising prices dominate voter concerns, with more than half of respondents identifying economic pressure as the key issue. A significant 69.8% of adults reportedly fear worsening personal financial conditions, while roughly a quarter remain less pessimistic. The agency interprets this as a widespread sense of economic insecurity shaping electoral behavior.

“Progressive Bulgaria” is described as maintaining a leading position, while GERB shows stable support, setting up what the agency calls a close contest at the top. WCC-DB is identified as a potential third political force, with possible influence in forming a reform-oriented bloc. DPS is also seen as a significant player in coalition arithmetic, particularly regarding constitutional changes and appointments in regulatory bodies, although its relative influence may decrease if a sixth party enters parliament.

“Revival” is characterized as a stable parliamentary presence likely to act as a corrective opposition force. Meanwhile, BSP’s presence is considered important for broader coalition configurations. The report also notes that voter perceptions are increasingly shaped by positions on foreign policy and ongoing international conflicts.

The agency observes public skepticism regarding recent government decisions, including the signing of a cooperation agreement with Ukraine, with negative assessments prevailing. It also highlights a perception among voters of inconsistent EU standards across different international crises, which may contribute to rising Euroscepticism.

Overall confidence in the electoral process remains limited, with many respondents doubtful that elections will produce stable governance. Negative evaluations of caretaker institutions and election fairness outweigh positive ones, although a substantial share of undecided respondents indicates continued volatility.

At the same time, former President Rumen Radev is described as maintaining strong public support, while expectations for the electoral outcome remain concentrated around “Progressive Bulgaria” as the leading force. However, the high proportion of undecided voters is presented as a factor that could still significantly alter final results.

Past surveys:

Gallup International Balkan - Gallup Poll: Five Parties Certain for Parliament, Progressive Bulgaria Leads

Alpha Research - Survey Snapshot: "Progressive Bulgaria" Tops GERB, Five Parties Enter Parliament

Trend - Latest Survey: “Progressive Bulgaria” Surges Ahead in April Elections Projection, GERB Trails Far Behind

Myara - New Survey Puts “Progressive Bulgaria” First, Six Parties Clear Threshold

Sova Harris Agency - Bulgaria’s Elections Poised for High Turnout: Six Parties Likely to Enter Parliament, Survey Shows

Gallup International Balkan - New Survey in Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Tops Vote with 29.8%, No Party Near Majority

Alpha Research - Bulgaria: Five Parties Poised for Parliament as Radev’s Project Surges, Survey Shows

Center for Analysis and Marketing - Five Parties Projected to Enter Bulgaria’s Next Parliament, Radev’s Formation Leads - CAM Survey

Trend - Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Leads with 32.7%, Five Parties Certain to Enter Parliament, According to a Survey

Myara - Bulgaria: Rumen Radev Leads with 33%, but Falls Short of Solo Rule, According to a Survey

Market Links - Former President Leads Early-Election Race in Bulgaria as the Liberals Trail in Third Place, Survey Shows