A new sociological snapshot suggests that six political formations would secure representation in the 52nd National Assembly if elections had taken place in mid-March, with a new political project linked to Rumen Radev ("Progressive Bulgaria") emerging as the leading force.

According to data from the independent research program of the “Myara” agency, the formation “Progressive Bulgaria” would come first with 30.8% support among decided voters. It is followed by GERB with 19.3% and "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) with 12.9%. The "Movement for Rights and Freedoms" (DPS-New Beginning) would rank fourth with 10.6%, while “Revival” would secure 7.9%. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP-United Left coalition) is positioned on the threshold with 4.1%, just above the electoral barrier, while "Morality, Unity, Honor" (MECH) remains just below it at 3.6%.

Further down, “Greatness” is estimated at 2.5%, while “Siyanie” shows signs of potential growth with 2.3%. "There Is Such a People" (TISP) and the "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (APS) remain with limited support at 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. Other smaller formations, including “Blue Bulgaria” and the “Anti-Corruption Bloc,” are also competing in the lower range, each fighting for marginal support at this stage.

The survey reflects the preferences of respondents who have already decided how to vote and does not represent a direct forecast of election results, but rather a current picture of electoral attitudes. The findings also indicate a potential voter turnout of around 49.1% of the adult population, suggesting participation could exceed three million people. At the same time, 1.8% of those intending to vote say they would choose the “I do not support anyone” option.

The study was conducted between March 7 and 16, 2026, through face-to-face interviews using tablets among 809 adult Bulgarian citizens. The maximum margin of error is ±3.5% at a 50% share, with 1% of the total sample corresponding to approximately 54,000 individuals.

Past surveys:

Sova Harris Agency - Bulgaria’s Elections Poised for High Turnout: Six Parties Likely to Enter Parliament, Survey Shows

Gallup International Balkan - New Survey in Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Tops Vote with 29.8%, No Party Near Majority

Alpha Research - Bulgaria: Five Parties Poised for Parliament as Radev’s Project Surges, Survey Shows

Center for Analysis and Marketing - Five Parties Projected to Enter Bulgaria’s Next Parliament, Radev’s Formation Leads - CAM Survey

Trend - Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Leads with 32.7%, Five Parties Certain to Enter Parliament, According to a Survey

Myara - Bulgaria: Rumen Radev Leads with 33%, but Falls Short of Solo Rule, According to a Survey

Market Links - Former President Leads Early-Election Race in Bulgaria as the Liberals Trail in Third Place, Survey Shows