A recent survey by the Sova Harris Agency, conducted between March 7 and 12, 2026 and commissioned by Bulgarian media Trud, indicates a potential surge in voter turnout for Bulgaria’s upcoming parliamentary elections, reversing the downward trend seen in previous years. If the vote were held today, approximately 55% of eligible voters, around 3 million adults, would cast their ballots, returning participation to levels last observed before 2020. Of these, roughly 2.5 million have already decided whom to support, while around 1 million remain undecided, representing a sizable bloc that could significantly influence the outcome.

The survey, which involved face-to-face interviews with 1,000 Bulgarian adults and carries a maximum margin of error of 3.1% at a 95% confidence level, projects that six parties would surpass the electoral threshold. Leading the field is Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria (30.9%), followed by GERB (19,03%), "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (12.2%), Delyan Peevski's DPS-New Beginning (7,1%), "Revival" (6,7%), and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (4,4%). The new leadership of BSP has slightly increased the party’s support above the threshold, while "Morality, Unity, Honor" (3,8%) remains just below it. Variations in support could result in a parliament comprising five, six, or even seven parties, reflecting a return toward a bipolar model, with dominant forces to the left and right of the center around which smaller parties orbit. The "Siyanie" Coalition is also showing notable support as it campaigns to challenge the current political status quo.

Survey results suggest a shift in public sentiment from disillusionment with government performance to heightened uncertainty regarding domestic and foreign policy. Economic issues, including high prices and inflation, are perceived as the most immediate challenges, while security and predictability remain top priorities. Long-term concerns, such as the demographic crisis, are less pressing for most citizens. Skepticism persists about whether elections will yield stable governance, and opinions are divided on whether the caretaker government can ensure a fair voting process.

On the political leadership front, only former president and Rumen Radev, along with current President Iliyana Yotova, enjoy consistently positive ratings. Caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov also commands high trust, significantly outpacing party leaders within his circle. Bulgarians show strong institutional confidence in the Bulgarian Orthodox Church, the presidency, the military, and the police, while trust is notably low in the government, courts, prosecutor’s office, and particularly the National Assembly.

Regarding foreign policy, over half of respondents support initiating peace talks in Ukraine immediately, even if concessions to Russia are required, while fewer favor waiting for Ukraine to improve its military position. Opinions on Russia lean toward a pragmatic approach: most citizens support adherence to EU sanctions while maintaining diplomatic relations, though a sizable segment would prefer Bulgaria to reject sanctions entirely. Concerning the Middle East conflict, the prevailing view favors intervention by the US and Israel to end hostilities, or alternatively, a diplomatic resolution in which Iran abandons its nuclear program.

The survey paints a picture of an electorate engaged and divided, with economic pressures and security concerns shaping voter priorities, while foreign policy stances reflect cautious pragmatism. The projected high turnout and multi-party representation underscore a potentially dynamic parliamentary election, with outcomes heavily influenced by the undecided portion of the electorate.

Past surveys:

Gallup International Balkan - New Survey in Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Tops Vote with 29.8%, No Party Near Majority

Alpha Research - Bulgaria: Five Parties Poised for Parliament as Radev’s Project Surges, Survey Shows

Center for Analysis and Marketing - Five Parties Projected to Enter Bulgaria’s Next Parliament, Radev’s Formation Leads - CAM Survey

Trend - Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Leads with 32.7%, Five Parties Certain to Enter Parliament, According to a Survey

Myara - Bulgaria: Rumen Radev Leads with 33%, but Falls Short of Solo Rule, According to a Survey

Market Links - Former President Leads Early-Election Race in Bulgaria as the Liberals Trail in Third Place, Survey Shows