Energy expert Boyan Rashev has warned that Europe could be moving toward what he described as an “energy lockdown” scenario if fuel supply pressures continue to worsen, drawing parallels with restrictions seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. Speaking on Nova TV’s “Hello, Bulgaria,” he suggested that governments may eventually be forced to introduce measures such as working from home policies and even free public transport if shortages intensify.

Rashev argued that authorities should already be preparing contingency plans for a potential physical fuel shortage. He said that if current conditions persist through the end of April, supply constraints already visible in parts of Asia could begin affecting Europe as well. “That is why we need to start planning,” he noted, adding that production levels are currently about 13 million barrels per day lower compared to late February.

He cautioned against administrative interference in fuel pricing, saying that attempts to regulate or suppress prices could mask real market pressures while ultimately worsening shortages. In his view, limiting consumption would be more effective, particularly for diesel and kerosene, while gasoline is expected to be less affected in Europe.

Rashev pointed to measures already introduced in Germany as an example of policy responses, including a temporary reduction in energy taxes by 17 cents per liter for gasoline and diesel. He also referenced restrictions on how often fuel prices can be adjusted at the pump, noting that such steps have not delivered the desired results.

According to him, Europe’s fuel situation is becoming increasingly strained, although Bulgaria remains comparatively better positioned due to its domestic refining capacity. “Bulgaria is one of the 5 EU countries that have their own refinery,” he said, emphasizing that this provides some insulation compared to other member states.

However, he warned that broader European imbalances remain significant, particularly in gas markets, where shortages are more severe than in diesel. He also suggested that rising energy costs will likely extend to electricity prices, further increasing pressure on households and industry.

Beyond energy, Rashev highlighted emerging risks linked to agricultural inputs, noting that fertilizer shortages are developing as exports from the Gulf region decline. He warned that this could have downstream effects on food production, adding to broader inflationary pressures across the economy.