Sociologist Dimitar Ganev has projected a higher voter turnout for the upcoming parliamentary elections in Bulgaria, estimating that around 3.1 million Bulgarians will cast their ballots, compared to roughly 2.6 million in 2024. He shared his analysis in an interview with Bulgarian National Radio, reflecting on the latest survey conducted by the polling agency “Trend” and comparing it to February’s results. According to Ganev, overall voter sentiment has remained fairly stable, with the only notable development being the inclusion of Nikolay Popov’s “Siyanie” formation in the latest survey.

Rumen Radev’s coalition, Progressive Bulgaria, continues to lead the polls. Ganev noted that while not all non-voters are expected to support PB, a majority of those newly mobilized by rising turnout seem to favor Radev’s formation. He cautioned that it is difficult to determine how much of this support is driven by a “penalty vote” against other parties versus genuine sympathy for Radev. A substantial portion of new voter support comes from previously inactive voters, which has contributed to the erosion of backing for parties such as "Morality, Unity, Honor" (MECH), "Greatness", "Revival", and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP).

Ganev declined to compare these results with other polling agencies, emphasizing his confidence in the “Trend” study. He noted that while there is minor erosion among the "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (PP-DB) coalition, it does not indicate a significant decline. The survey also highlights a new entity, “Siyanie,” polling at 2.9%. Several parties, including "There Is Such a People" (TISP), the "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (APS), and potentially MECH, appear poised to cross the 4% threshold required to enter parliament, though Ganev stressed the uncertainty, pointing out that each percentage point represents about 31,000 votes. He underscored that a well-executed campaign could push borderline parties over the barrier, making the coming weeks critical.

Regarding the anticipated higher turnout, Ganev attributed it to the emergence of the new entity, drawing historical parallels to voter mobilization seen during GERB’s rise in 2009 and NDSV in 2001. The latest “Trend” survey, commissioned by 24 Chasa, was conducted between March 13 and 19, 2026, using semi-standardized face-to-face interviews with 1,001 respondents aged 18 and older, employing tablets for data collection.