While attention has focused on oil and LNG tankers blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, the war in Iran is creating a quieter but equally alarming threat: disruptions to global fertilizer shipments and food imports. The Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, rely heavily on these supplies to sustain populations and agriculture, and nearly a fifth of global traded fertilizer passes through the region.

Data from maritime intelligence firm Signal Group show Gulf nations handle 20% of traded volumes for key fertilizers such as ammonia, phosphates, and sulfur. Urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, sees nearly half of its global trade originating in the Gulf, with Qatar alone supplying around 10% of the world’s needs. Recent Iranian strikes at Ras Laffan, the largest LNG and fertilizer hub globally, have already sidelined hundreds of thousands of tons of essential fertilizer nutrients, raising fears of crop yield disruptions.

According to UNCTAD, roughly 1.33 million tons of fertilizer transit Hormuz each month. A closure of just 30 days could trigger significant shortages and affect nitrogen-dependent crops like corn, wheat, and rice. Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute warned that higher prices may force farmers, particularly in poorer nations, to reduce fertilizer use or switch to less nitrogen-intensive crops, undermining global output.

The conflict adds to the third major shock to global food security in six years, following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s disruption of Ukrainian grain exports in 2022. Analysts note that other major fertilizer producers, including Russia, China, the US, and Morocco, have limited spare capacity and cannot rapidly compensate for Gulf shortages. Production increases are further constrained by high natural gas costs, which limit economically viable nitrogen fertilizer output.

Energy costs compound the threat. Brent crude remains elevated near $89 per barrel after spiking to USD 119.50 earlier this week, pushing diesel prices sharply higher in the US, Europe, and Asia. IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that a sustained 10% increase in energy prices for a year could add 0.4 percentage points to global inflation and cut economic growth by up to 0.2%. Joseph Glauber emphasized that energy costs account for roughly half of food production expenses, from machinery and transport to processing and refrigeration, magnifying the impact on consumers worldwide.

Import-dependent countries face the greatest vulnerability. India relies on the Gulf for up to two-thirds of its nitrogen fertilizer imports, leaving its monsoon planting season at risk. Brazil, a major agricultural exporter, sources roughly 40% of its urea from the Gulf, and any prolonged disruption could depress soy and maize yields amid already tight global supply. Sub-Saharan Africa, where fertilizer usage is already below optimal levels, faces the steepest long-term risk, with smallholders potentially forced to reduce application further, worsening hunger.

Iran itself is contending with soaring inflation, exceeding 40%, and rising food prices, a situation likely to worsen as energy costs and logistical disruptions mount. Gulf states, importing 80–90% of their food, also face exposure; a sustained closure of Hormuz could deplete strategic reserves within months, forcing rationing or expensive rerouting through the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman.