A United Nations investigative body has raised the alarm that South Sudan is dangerously close to descending back into full-scale war, warning that entrenched impunity and escalating violence are destabilizing the country. The Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan (CHRSS) stressed that immediate measures are needed to halt widespread abuses and prevent the collapse of the fragile transition that followed the 2018 peace agreement.

The report, presented during a Human Rights Council session, paints a grim picture of civilians caught in the crossfire, enduring killings, systematic sexual violence, and mass displacement amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. Investigators noted that escalating atrocity risks and the erosion of political protections make urgent preventive action critical, urging international and regional actors to apply diplomatic pressure, enforce sanctions, and uphold the UN arms embargo. According to Al Jazeera, coordinated global engagement is essential to prevent institutional collapse and the breakdown of the peace process.

Rising instability is linked to the actions of political and military elites undermining power-sharing arrangements. The arrest and suspension of First Vice President Riek Machar, charged with murder and treason after clashes in Nasir, has destabilized core guarantees of the 2018 peace deal and triggered armed confrontations on a scale not seen in a decade. The crisis echoes back to the 2013 civil war, when President Salva Kiir accused Machar of attempting a coup.

The investigation also highlighted a shift in tactics by the government, including aerial bombardments targeting civilian areas. The involvement of Ugandan forces has strengthened government positions but raised concerns over violations of the UN arms embargo, as joint air strikes have primarily affected ethnic Nuer communities. Sexual violence continues to be a pervasive element of the conflict, deployed strategically to terrorize communities and disrupt social cohesion.

The humanitarian situation is severe: since December, 280,000 people have been displaced, while over 450,000 children face acute malnutrition, according to UNICEF. Nearly 10 million people require urgent aid, yet attacks and deliberate blockages of humanitarian assistance are hindering relief efforts. The CHRSS noted that civilians bear the overwhelming human toll of the crisis, with displacement surging nearly 40 percent and fears of a total collapse intensifying following opposition forces’ seizure of government outposts in Jonglei state.

The report underscores that without immediate and coordinated intervention, South Sudan risks spiraling back into widespread conflict, with civilians continuing to endure killings, forced displacement, and systematic abuses, highlighting the urgent need for global engagement to stabilize the country.