Five political formations are firmly positioned to enter the next National Assembly, while two more remain just below the 4% threshold but retain tangible prospects of representation. These are the findings of a national representative survey conducted by Trend at the request of 24 Chasa in the period February 12–18, 2026. The study was carried out through direct semi-standardized face-to-face interviews with tablets among 1,002 respondents aged 18 and over.

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According to the data, the newly announced political project associated with Rumen Radev leads with 32.7% support among those who say they will vote. GERB follows in second place with 20.4%. The contest for third position remains open, with WCC-DB at 10.9% and DPS-New Beginning close behind at 10.5%. Revival ranks fifth with 7.8%, securing for now a place among the parties certain to cross the barrier.

Just below the parliamentary threshold are BSP with 3.8% and MECH with 3.6%, both maintaining what sociologists describe as a realistic chance for entry. There Is Such a People registers 2.5%, while the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms stands at 1.7%, and Greatness at 1.6%.

Researchers clarify that the percentages have been recalculated after excluding respondents who declared they would choose the “I do not support anyone” option, which this month accounts for 1.9%. In terms of turnout, expectations point to higher participation compared to the most recent elections. A total of 59% of adult citizens living in Bulgaria state they intend to cast a ballot in the early parliamentary vote scheduled for April 19. Based on the agency’s methodology, where 1% of the sample corresponds to approximately 52,500 people, this would translate into around 3 million and 100 thousand voters heading to polling stations.

The projected parliamentary configuration described as “five plus two” echoes conclusions from previous surveys by Myara and Market Links, which also placed a formation linked to Rumen Radev in first position among likely voters and outlined a similar scenario for representation in the next legislature.

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