Growth in the 12-nation eurozone is likely to be just 1% in 2003, and even that slim expansion is under threat if war in Iraq drags on much longer, the European Commission has warned. In its regular forecast for European growth, the EC said that, under current conditions, growth should pick up in the second half of 2003, making recession unlikely, and accelerate further into 2004. But the recovery remains fragile due to the global slowdown and the weakness of many of its economies - with powerhouses France and Germany and possibly Italy too breaching rules limiting budget deficits.

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