Day 552 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Russia's War is Weakening its Economic Stability at Home

World » UKRAINE | August 29, 2023, Tuesday // 09:34
Bulgaria: Day 552 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Russia's War is Weakening its Economic Stability at Home @novinite.com

Day 552 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

  • Yevgeny Prigozhin has been buried
  • Putin will not attend Prigozhin's funeral
  • The Pope did not intend to glorify Russian imperialism, the Vatican said
  • Russia's war is weakening its economic stability at home
  • Zelensky: Ukraine is increasing its own weapons production
  • Russia claims: Our air defense shot down drones over the Tula region
  • US accuses Russia of intimidation after former consular official charged with espionage
  • The White House confirmed: Prigozhin died in the plane crash
  • Pope Francis has come under fire for praising the Russian tsars
  • South Korea increases aid to Ukraine eightfold for 2024


Yevgeny Prigozhin has been buried

The head of Russia's private military company Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash last week, has been buried, Reuters reported, citing his press office.

It announced today that Prigozhin was buried in a private ceremony at a cemetery on the outskirts of his hometown of St. Petersburg. Earlier in the day, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin would not attend the funeral of the once-close businessman.

Putin will not attend Prigozhin's funeral

Russian President Vladimir Putin does not plan to attend the funeral of the leader of the Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, as quoted by Reuters.

Peskov noted that the Kremlin does not have specific information about the funeral and the organization depends on the family.

"The president is not expected to attend," a Kremlin spokesman told reporters when asked if Putin would attend.

Prigozhin died when his business jet crashed last week, two months after he and his Wagner mercenaries staged a rebellion against Russia's military leadership in which they seized control of the southern city of Rostov and advanced towards Moscow before stopping 200km from the capital.

The Kremlin has dismissed as an "absolute lie" the suggestion by some Western politicians and commentators that Putin ordered Prigozhin to be killed in revenge.

The Pope did not intend to glorify Russian imperialism, the Vatican said

Pope Francis did not intend to glorify Russian imperialism when he praised the tsars who expanded the Russian empire, the Vatican said on Tuesday, after the pope's comments were criticized by Kyiv.

Ukraine said comments Francis made last Friday in a live video address to Catholic youth gathered in St. Petersburg were worthy of "deep regret".

Francis read his prepared speech in Spanish, but switched to Italian at the end and said: "Don't forget (your) heritage. You are heirs to the great Russia - the great Russia of the saints, of the tsars, the great Russia of Peter the Great, of Catherine Second, of the great Russian Empire, cultural, with so much culture, with so much humanity. You are heirs of the great mother Russia. Go forward."

The Vatican released the text of the address on Saturday, but did not include the final, improvised paragraph. A video of the Pope's speech, which included the commentary after the prepared speech, was published by religious websites.

The two monarchs expanded the Russian Empire in the 17th and 18th centuries, including conquering parts of Ukraine, and President Vladimir Putin has invoked their legacy to justify his invasion and annexation of territory last year.

"The Pope intended to encourage young people to preserve and promote all that is positive in the great Russian cultural and spiritual heritage and certainly not to praise the imperialist logic and rulers, (which he) mentioned in order to point to some historical periods for reference," the Vatican spokesman clarified in a statement.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin described the Pope's comments as very satisfactory, saying that the Russian state has a rich heritage and that it is good that the Pope knows Russian history.

Russia's war is weakening its economic stability at home

"We have no restrictions on funding".

This was announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting of the top military leadership in December 2022.

"The country, the government will provide everything the army asks for".

Eighteen months after the start of the war in Ukraine, Putin appears to be keeping that promise. But he is increasingly doing so at the expense of another, unspoken agreement with the Russian people: to maintain economic stability at home, CNN points out.

A few weeks before the meeting in December, Putin signed a budget law that earmarked 4.98 trillion rubles (52 billion US dollars) for "national defense" in 2023 - slightly more than last year's spending. But that estimate has now doubled to 9.7 trillion rubles (101 billion US dollars), according to a government document seen by Reuters earlier this month. The amount is nearly three times what Russia spent on defense in 2021, before its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

What's more, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that only about three-quarters of total military spending is accounted for under the "national defense" column.

Richard Connolly, a specialist in the Russian economy at the Royal Joint Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, also suggests that military spending this year will exceed 100 billion US dollars. He added that before the war, Russia usually spent about 3-4% of its annual GDP on defense, but now it could reach somewhere between 8% and 10%.

If the price of goods and services in Russia is taken into account, the equivalent amount in dollar terms for 2023 looks even higher, probably closer to 300 billion US dollars, estimates Janis Kluge, senior fellow at the German Institute for International Affairs and Security Affars.

Financing the war already has a high economic cost. Russia's budget deficit has risen sharply since the start of the conflict as oil and gas export earnings have been hit by Western sanctions and deep discounts for other buyers. Revenues from the oil and gas sector were 41% lower in the January to July period than in the same period in 2022. This means Moscow has to borrow more. Government debt, currently at 14.9% of GDP, is expected to rise.

"We're going to increase our debt, that's inevitable. We're going to have to because costs are going up," Deputy Finance Minister Irina Okladnikova said last month.

The plan is to stay within the "safe margin" of 20 percent of GDP, she added. (Russia is still one of the least indebted countries in the world, thanks in part to its profits from energy and other commodities.)

Russia's exports are still greater than the value of its imports, despite the increase in military spending. But that surplus fell by 85% in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2022, bringing the country dangerously close to a deficit.

Countries with such deficits usually rely on foreign capital inflows. But for Russia, it's more difficult because of the sanctions, Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, told CNN.

"Russia cannot borrow from abroad, it is excluded from the Western capital markets," he pointed out.

In addition, Moscow cannot use the large share of its central bank's foreign exchange reserves that are frozen in the West.

The rapidly disappearing surplus has contributed to the depreciation of the ruble, according to data from the Russian Central Bank. The currency has lost more than 30% of its value in 2023, falling to over 100 rubles to the dollar earlier in August.

The ruble may still fall, Kluge told CNN.

"The last thing they (the government) want is for Russians to lose confidence in the Russian currency and then at some point maybe start exchanging all the rubles into foreign currency, because then a vicious circle will be formed. And that really could create some kind of currency crisis in Russia," he said.

A weaker ruble is pushing up prices, Russia's central bank said on August 15, when it raised its key interest rate by 3.5 percentage points to 12%. Policymakers said the decision - taken a day after the ruble hit a 17-month low against the dollar - was "aimed at limiting risks to price stability".

Annual consumer price inflation reached 4.3% in July, exceeding the central bank's target of 4%. More interest rate hikes or even the reintroduction of controls aimed at keeping dollars in Russia may be needed, although this is likely to slow economic growth.

Rising military spending, on the other hand, boosts Russia's industrial output and with it GDP. Last month, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for the country's GDP growth this year to 1.5 percent, up from the 0.7 percent forecast in April.

"However, this is not the kind of growth we should be enjoying," noted Alexandra Suslina, an independent economist who left Russia shortly after the invasion began. "If you're producing a tank, that's of course a big contributor to official GDP growth. But that tank isn't going to plow fields... it's not going to help you educate people or heal them. That's not an incentive for longer-term development " she explained to CNN.

Economists admit that Russia's economy is performing better than expected. Suslina argued that the traditional endurance of the Russian people served as an "additional resource".

"The Soviet legacy taught people to live in poverty, not to rely on anything. And they are ready to stay for a long time in this survival mode."

Alexandra Prokopenko, a foreign scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasian Center in Berlin, added that Russian politicians and businessmen also know how to meet crises.

But the strain on the economy is intensifying. Although oil prices have risen since late June, they are still well below last year's highs, which has helped Moscow weather the impact of sanctions. Oil export earnings in July were 4.1 billion US dollars lower than a year ago, according to International Energy Agency estimates.

"Russia is in a position where it simply cannot live with much lower oil prices. Macroeconomic stability depends on oil prices remaining at current levels," insists Peach from Capital Economics.

According to Prokopenko, Russia could finance the war for another year or so. But if it drags on, the government will have to make "difficult choices".

"The trade-offs will be that they will have to raise taxes or cut infrastructure spending, like building roads and maintaining bridges, because military spending will take more and more of the budget," she told CNN.

Peach agrees and adds that in the near future Russia will have to close its budget deficit and may raise taxes on the most profitable sectors of the economy.

"Russia's largest companies will become increasingly subordinate to those in power. The cost of greater state involvement, isolation from the West, and continued commitment to military objectives will lead to a decline in Russia's growth and living standards," he predicted.

Zelensky: Ukraine is increasing its own weapons production

Ukraine is increasing its own weapons production, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced. In his traditional video address, he emphasized that Ukraine has the potential and finances for this.

A woman was killed by Russian shelling in the city of Toretsk in the Donetsk Oblast, the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office announced. Three others were injured. According to Kyiv, Russian forces likely shelled the city with cluster munitions. The impact caused damage to residential buildings. Russia is shelling targets in the Donetsk Oblast every day, with the most vulnerable being the front-line settlements that are within range of Russian artillery.

The Russian Defense Ministry reported another attempted attack by a Ukrainian drone over the border Belgorod region and Tula region, south of Moscow. And Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov acknowledged some successes of Russian forces near Kupiansk, but warned that they could find themselves surrounded if the Ukrainians manage to move into the Bakhmut area. Reznikov also commented that there is no need for additional mobilization and, in addition, believes that by the end of the year, Ukraine will switch to its own production of drones.

In his late video address, President Volodymyr Zelensky also spoke about the production of own weapons. According to him, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex maximizes the volume of its production.

"Rifles produced in Ukraine, projectiles produced in Ukraine, drones and missiles, armored vehicles. We are increasing the volume of production as much as possible. Ukraine can do it, there is funding. Our defense industry will give a great result," said Zelensky.

Poland, Lithuania and Latvia will completely close their borders with Belarus in case of an incident caused by fighters of the Russian mercenary group "Wagner" or illegal migrants. This was stated by the interior ministers of the three countries at a meeting in Warsaw.

"We demand from the authorities in Minsk, from the Lukashenko regime, that the Wagner group immediately leave the territory of Belarus, and that illegal migrants, gathered by the Belarusian authorities in the border authorities in the border areas, be sent back to their native countries," insisted the Polish Minister Mariusz Kaminski.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claims the number of Wagnerites in his country is 10,000. And according to Polish authorities, 19,000 migrants have tried to enter Poland from Belarus since the start of the year, compared with 16,000 in the same period last year. The opposition in Belarus claims that the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Minsk has been issuing new passports to "Wagner" fighters for a month now, with which they can enter the territory of the European Union.

Russia claims: Our air defense shot down drones over the Tula region

Russia claims air defenses shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Tula region, south of Moscow. The Ministry of Defense accused Ukraine of trying to attack Russian facilities and again described what happened as a "terrorist attack".

One of the drones was intercepted around 11 p.m., the other two hours earlier. At the same time, the United States said Moscow was trying to intimidate American officials. This comes after allegations that a former US consulate employee was charged with espionage for illegally gathering information about the war in Ukraine, Russian officials said.

US accuses Russia of intimidation after former consular official charged with espionage

The United States has accused Moscow of trying to intimidate and harass US officials after Russian state media reported that a former US consular official had been accused by security services of gathering information about the war in Ukraine and other matters for Washington.

Russia's state-run TASS news agency cited the FSB security service as saying that Robert Shonov, a Russian citizen, had passed on information to US embassy officials in Moscow about how the recruitment drive in Russia was affecting political discontent ahead of Russia's 2024 presidential election.

The FSB said it plans to question US embassy officials who have been in contact with Shonov, who has been arrested since May.

Shonov was an employee of the US Consulate General in the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok for more than 25 years until Russia in 2021 ordered the termination of local US mission staff.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller reiterated the US position that the allegations against Shonov, who Washington says was subsequently hired through a company contracted by the US Embassy to summarize news reports, "are completely without merit".

"Russia's targeting of Mr. Shonov under the `'confidential cooperation'' status only underscores the increasingly repressive actions the Russian government is taking against its own citizens," Miller said in a statement, adding that Washington knew that the FSB has also summoned two diplomats working at the US embassy in Moscow in connection with the case.

"We strongly protest the attempts of the Russian security services - aided by the state-controlled media - to intimidate and harass our employees," Miller said.

The Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The White House confirmed: Prigozhin died in the plane crash

The White House has confirmed - Yevgeny Prigozhin died in the plane crash over Russia last week. Presidential spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said the United States was "increasingly certain" that was the case.

Russia officially confirmed the death of the Wagner founder on Sunday. This happened after DNA analyzes were carried out at the scene of the accident. The private plane crashed two months after the failed rebellion organized against the Russian military leadership.

Pope Francis has come under fire for praising the Russian tsars

Pope Francis came under fire last night for telling young Russians to remember that they are heirs to tsars like Peter the Great, whom President Vladimir Putin likes to use as an example to justify the invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported.

Ukraine said comments Francis made last Friday in a live video address to Catholic youth gathered in St Petersburg were worthy of "deep regret".

Francis read his prepared speech in Spanish, but switched to Italian at the end and said: "Don't forget (your) heritage. You are heirs to the great Russia - the great Russia of the saints, of the tsars, the great Russia of Peter the Great, of Catherine Second, of the great Russian Empire, cultural, with so much culture, with so much humanity. You are heirs of the great mother Russia. Go forward."

The Vatican released the text of the address on Saturday, but did not include the final, improvised paragraph. A video of the Pope's speech, which included the commentary after the prepared speech, was published by religious websites.

"It is with such imperialist propaganda about 'spiritual ties' and the 'need' to save 'the great mother Russia' that the Kremlin justifies the killing of thousands of Ukrainians and the destruction of Ukrainian towns and villages," spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said in his post on Facebook. of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.

"I deeply regret that such notions of being a great power, which essentially contribute to Russia's chronic aggressiveness, are being expressed by the Pope, knowingly or unknowingly," Nikolenko added.

Archbishop Svyatoslav Shevchuk, head of the Ukrainian Eastern Rite Catholic Church, said the pope's words had caused "tremendous pain and concern" and that he feared they could "inspire the neo-colonial ambitions of the aggressor country". He demanded an explanation from the Vatican.

An editorial on an Italian website specializing in Catholic affairs called the pope's words "strange" against the backdrop of the delicate historical moment. The article notes that Catherine, better known as Catherine the Great, who ruled from 1729 to 1796, annexed Crimea in 1783. Catherine is also noted for protecting the Jesuits in Russian-controlled lands after Pope Clement Fourteenth suppressed the order worldwide in 1773. Pope Francis is a Jesuit.

South Korea increases aid to Ukraine eightfold for 2024

South Korea today announced that in the next fiscal year it will provide Ukraine with financial assistance in the amount of 520 billion won (394 million US dollars), which is an eight-fold increase compared to this year, Reuters reported.

The aid package includes 130 billion won for reconstruction, 260 billion won for humanitarian aid and another 130 billion won through international organizations, according to South Korea's 2024 budget.

In July, President Yoon Suk-yeol announced that his country would provide "large amounts of military supplies" this year, without giving further details.

Today, Yoon also announced an increase in South Korean official development assistance for strategic areas, including the Asia-Pacific region and Africa, from 1.4 trillion won to 2 trillion won (1.51 billion US dollars).


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