Five political formations are currently positioned to enter the next Bulgarian parliament, according to a nationally representative survey by Gallup International Balkans conducted during the early phase of the election campaign. The data also indicate a slight increase in declared voter turnout, with nearly 53% of respondents saying they intend to vote, compared to 51% recorded before the campaign began.

The survey places “Progressive Bulgaria” in the lead with 27.7% support among those who have already made their choice. Although this marks a decline from the 29.8% registered in February, analysts do not yet interpret it as a stable downward trend. Rather, it reflects fluctuations linked to a slower campaign pace and the relatively late announcement of the coalition’s name.

GERB follows in second place with 22.8%, showing signs of mobilization in the pre-election period. It remains to be seen whether this dynamic will continue and potentially narrow the gap with the leading formation.

Third position is held by "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (PP-DB) with 10.6%. The coalition appears to be affected by the so-called “Petrohan” case, though it still retains the potential to attract additional protest voters as the campaign progresses.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) ranks fourth with 10.4%, maintaining a stable level of support. Traditionally, the movement demonstrates strong mobilization capacity during actual elections, which could further boost its result.

“Revival” completes the group of parties expected to enter parliament, registering 6.3% and showing a slight increase compared to earlier measurements. This growth is attributed to clearer political positioning, which has helped consolidate its core electorate.

Several other formations remain below the 4% electoral threshold but retain varying chances of crossing it. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP-United Left) and the “Siyanie” coalition both register 2.9%, followed closely by "There Is Such a People" (TISP) with 2.8% and "Morality, Unity, Honor" (MECH) with 2.7%. “Greatness” stands at 1.8%, while APS and “Blue Bulgaria” each record 0.9%.

The survey was conducted between March 20 and March 30, 2026, among 820 adult Bulgarian citizens using face-to-face interviews with tablet-based data collection. The sample was structured by age, gender, education and type of settlement, with a maximum statistical error of ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level. The study is part of Gallup International Balkans’ independent research program and was financed with its own resources.

Past surveys:

Alpha Research - Survey Snapshot: "Progressive Bulgaria" Tops GERB, Five Parties Enter Parliament

Trend - Latest Survey: “Progressive Bulgaria” Surges Ahead in April Elections Projection, GERB Trails Far Behind

Myara - New Survey Puts “Progressive Bulgaria” First, Six Parties Clear Threshold

Sova Harris Agency - Bulgaria’s Elections Poised for High Turnout: Six Parties Likely to Enter Parliament, Survey Shows

Gallup International Balkan - New Survey in Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Tops Vote with 29.8%, No Party Near Majority

Alpha Research - Bulgaria: Five Parties Poised for Parliament as Radev’s Project Surges, Survey Shows

Center for Analysis and Marketing - Five Parties Projected to Enter Bulgaria’s Next Parliament, Radev’s Formation Leads - CAM Survey

Trend - Bulgaria: Radev’s Formation Leads with 32.7%, Five Parties Certain to Enter Parliament, According to a Survey

Myara - Bulgaria: Rumen Radev Leads with 33%, but Falls Short of Solo Rule, According to a Survey

Market Links - Former President Leads Early-Election Race in Bulgaria as the Liberals Trail in Third Place, Survey Shows