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Business | January 20, 2004, Tuesday // 00:00
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Inflation may rise a little at the beginning of 2004 due to increase in excise duties, Ivan Iskrov, governor of the Bulgarian National Bank said at his meeting with members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Bulgaria, where he delivered a lecture on the policy of the Bulgarian National Bank and economic development in 2004.
He played down the importance of prices hikes, saying that experience from the beginning of 2002 shows similar "one-off shocks" abate within several months.
According to the Central Bank governor the inflation will retain its low or not-so-high levels nationally and globally. Factors in this trend will be the weakening of the dollar and stable goods' prices on the international market.
Bulgaria marked a 4.1% growth in the first nine months of 2003, with projections setting all-year growth at 4.5%-4.8%.
BNB governor underlined that, being an open system, Bulgaria's economy will depend on the development of global economic processes this year.
Iskrov pointed out that GDP growth is projected to reach 5.3% in 2004.
At the beginning of January the Economist Intelligence Unit projected real GDP growth to slow slightly to 4.1% in 2004 but to rise again to 4.5% in 2005 as external demand recovers.
Inflation will rise a little, but the main concern is the current-account deficit, which widened sharply in 2003. It is forecast to narrow gradually but will still be around 6% of GDP in 2005.
EIU analysts have revised upwards the estimate of inflation in 2003 and the forecast for 2004 in the wake of surging food prices in November.
He played down the importance of prices hikes, saying that experience from the beginning of 2002 shows similar "one-off shocks" abate within several months.
According to the Central Bank governor the inflation will retain its low or not-so-high levels nationally and globally. Factors in this trend will be the weakening of the dollar and stable goods' prices on the international market.
Bulgaria marked a 4.1% growth in the first nine months of 2003, with projections setting all-year growth at 4.5%-4.8%.
BNB governor underlined that, being an open system, Bulgaria's economy will depend on the development of global economic processes this year.
Iskrov pointed out that GDP growth is projected to reach 5.3% in 2004.
At the beginning of January the Economist Intelligence Unit projected real GDP growth to slow slightly to 4.1% in 2004 but to rise again to 4.5% in 2005 as external demand recovers.
Inflation will rise a little, but the main concern is the current-account deficit, which widened sharply in 2003. It is forecast to narrow gradually but will still be around 6% of GDP in 2005.
EIU analysts have revised upwards the estimate of inflation in 2003 and the forecast for 2004 in the wake of surging food prices in November.
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