Recent regional elections in two East German states have dealt a significant blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ruling coalition, casting a shadow over his prospects for next year's federal elections. In Thuringia and Saxony, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is barely above the 5% threshold needed for representation, while coalition partners the Greens and Free Democrats are struggling to secure seats in local parliaments.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), already dominant in the former East Germany, has strengthened its position. In Thuringia, the far-right is poised to achieve a historic first by winning a state election since World War II. The new populist party, Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), has also performed well. However, both BSW and other parties have stated they will not form a coalition with the AfD.

September 22 will see provincial elections in Brandenburg, where similar trends are expected. Exit polls from BSW indicated that the AfD secured 33.5% of the vote, up from 23.4% in 2019. The Christian Democrats (CDU) followed with 24.5%, an increase from 21.7% five years ago. BSW achieved 14.5% of the vote.

In Saxony, the CDU, which has been in power for over three decades, maintained a slight lead over the AfD according to exit polls, with 32% compared to 32.1% in 2019. The AfD followed closely with 31.5%, up from 27.5% previously. BSW came in third with 11.5%.

Although BSW has ruled out alliances with the AfD, the two parties share Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant, and pro-Russian views, often aligning on key issues. Nationally, the AfD and BSW are drawing 16-19% and 7-9% of the vote, respectively, and their influence may extend beyond East Germany.

The political landscape in the former GDR continues to diverge from the rest of Germany, raising questions about how these regional results will influence national sentiment. The three provinces, with a combined population of around 8.5 million, play a crucial role in managing police, courts, and cultural policies, as well as participating in the Bundesrat, which impacts federal legislation.

In Thuringia, the CDU has stated it will not form a coalition with former communists, complicating coalition negotiations. A minority government with BSW support appears likely. In Saxony and Brandenburg, a current coalition of conservatives, socialists, and Greens may seek BSW support if they fail to secure a majority.

The AfD’s significant share of the vote gives it the power to block certain decisions, such as judicial appointments and constitutional changes, in Saxony and Thuringia. Additionally, having won the election, the AfD will have the right to propose the speaker of the Thuringian parliament, who faces an uncertain future.