A forecast released by Bulgaria's National Statistical Institute (NSI) paints a concerning picture for the country's demographic future. By the year 2075, the projection suggests a significant decrease in Bulgaria's population, foreseeing a drop to 4,972,000 individuals, with a quarter of the populace aged 65 and above.

NSI clarified that demographic projections are calculated based on assumptions about birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns, offering insights into potential population changes over the forecast period.

This forecast, extending until 2090, utilized data on population numbers, births, deaths, settlers, and emigrants, detailing population demographics by age and gender. Three scenarios were considered, aligning with different socio-economic conditions anticipated for the country.

The first scenario, deemed realistic and in line with EU demographic regulations, projects a decline below 5 million by 2075, marking a significant population downturn.

Meanwhile, the other scenarios hinge on divergent socio-economic hypotheses, one optimistic and the other pessimistic, envisioning demographic shifts within favorable and unfavorable national contexts, respectively.

The NSI's projections signify a potentially critical shift in Bulgaria's demographic landscape, highlighting the importance of socio-economic policies to address and mitigate the anticipated population decline.

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