Gallup: If the Vote Were Today - GERB Wins, Battle for the Second Place gets Heated
The opinion poll clearly shows how the new formation of Petkov and Vassilev affects the standings
If the elections for the National Assembly were held in the first half of September, the results would be the following: GERB-SDS with electoral readiness in 21.4% of adult Bulgarians, "We Continue the Change" - in 15.2% BSP - 13.4%, "There Is Such a People" - 12.3%, "Democratic Bulgaria" - 12.1%, DPS - 11.4%. Near the barrier is "Stand up, Bulgaria! We are coming! ” with 4.1%. Below the barrier are mostly two formations: "Vazrazhdane" - by 3.3% and VMRO - by 2.2%.
The data is from a telephone survey conducted between September 21 and 26 among 2,000 adult Bulgarians using a special panel methodology that ensures maximum representation. The absolute maximum error is ± 2.4% for 50% shares. 1% of the total sample is equal to about 55 thousand people. The drilling is part of the Gallup International Balkan research program.
The data show a "package" of formations after GERB-SDS, some of which dispute the possibility of second place. The drilling clearly shows how the news of the last days - the creation of the new formation - is reflected. At the moment, the inertia of the newcomers challenges the support of well-known parties and creates the most dynamic prospects for "We Continue the Change". This may allow this formation to "break away" from the group of "pursuers".
The results cause a momentary tremor in the picture and lead to shifts in the layers, for which it remains to be seen whether they gain durability. Therefore, the data is a snapshot, and the upcoming month and a half of the campaign will show what the trends are.
It seems that to the greatest extent the new party addresses an electorate that would otherwise vote for "Democratic Bulgaria". Many of the voters who would be or have already been on the periphery of TISP are now also moving towards the new formation. Even supporters of the otherwise hardline BSP, and even GERB, are showing interest in the new party.
50.6% say they will vote in the election. 22.6% say they are likely to vote. This means that interest in elections is growing. It remains to be seen whether and what impact the merger of the two types of elections will have, but at the moment more activity can be expected compared to the July 11 elections.
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