The Wall Street Journal

by Sean Carney

Mass protests in Bulgaria against austerity measures and energy costs forced out the government in February. Elections set for Sunday could lead to more political turmoil.

Recent public-opinion surveys indicate that the conservative party that led the previous administration and its main, left-leaning challenger are running neck-and-neck, complicating prospects for the formation of a governing coalition.

Unhappiness with low living standards and perceived corruption in the European Union's poorest member state boiled over this past winter, leading to nationwide demonstrations, initially over rising electricity prices.

In a sign of the desperate public mood, at least seven people have set themselves on fire—some explicitly saying they were acting to protest government policies and corruption. Six have died.

"The coming elections are like a joke to me, as is any hope that things will get better," said Yoana Georgieva, a woman in her early 20s living in Sofia. "I feel as if all of the parties and their leaders are irrelevant to me and the life I live."

The former conservative prime minister, Boyko Borisov, submitted his resignation Feb. 20 after marchers in Sofia clashed with riot police, saying he wanted to prevent violence from worsening.

Reacting to the outcry over power prices, Bulgaria's energy regulator cut them six weeks ago and the caretaker government has said they would remain capped for a year.

Mr. Borisov, a former bodyguard to Soviet-era dictator Todor Zhivkov, kept a tight rein on spending and navigated the global financial crisis without needing an international bailout.

During the campaign, Mr. Borisov has pledged to continue his drive for austerity in public finances, which he says is based on the German model. He has argued that taking painful steps now will make Bulgaria more competitive in the long run and help it to avoid the fate of Southern Europe.

But his support has been weakened by corruption allegations and a wiretapping scandal.

The rival Socialist party has said that it would work to reduce the tax burden on the poorest people in the country, where the average monthly income is roughly €400 (0) a month. The party has also promised to raise wages and to improve tax collection to pay for it.

Plamen Oresharski, the Socialist candidate for prime minister, has also promised to reduce unemployment by ending policies of the previous government that he said squash aspiring businesses.

But both parties appear far from winning a majority in Parliament.

A poll released Thursday by the Sova Harris agency put both Mr. Borisov's centre-right party, the Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria, or GERB, at 20.9% and the Socialists at 20.4%, Another poll done by Center of Analysis and Marketing put GERB at 21.3% and the Socialists at 18.9%.

"It will be very difficult to form a coalition," predicted Antoaneta Tzoneva, chairwoman of the Institute for Public Environment Development, which advocates for fair elections and judicial reform.

An analyst at IHS Global Insight, James Goundry, said that if neither Mr. Borisov's party nor the Socialists emerge as clear victors, a coalition focused only on specific issues could rule until another round of elections, potentially in September.

Ms. Tzoneva said she expected voter turnout to be low because people are losing hope that the country's prospects will improve and see little hope for change in any parties.

Amid concerns about the potential for election fraud, opposition parties have hired an Austrian company to count election results in parallel with official state agencies, an unprecedented move in post-Communist Bulgaria.

Some international observers led by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe are also coming to monitor the election.

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