Pollster Aslanov: Bulgaria's New Parliament to Complete Term
Interview of Novinite.com and Novinite.bg with Yurij Aslanov, head of Aphis, a Bulgarian polling agency
Which party will form Bulgaria’s next government – the formerly ruling GERB of Boyko Borisov or the Socialist Party, led by Sergey Stanishev?
It is difficult to make any forecasts, but my expectation is that Plamen Oresharski, tipped by the Socialists to head their government, is more likely to succeed.
There are reports that Socialist party members may surprisingly support the minority cabinet of the arch enemy Boyko Borisov?
These are just rumors and I would rather not comment them.
The Socialists vowed to scrap Bulgaria’s current 10% flat tax on personal and corporate income and resume building the Belene nuclear power plant by Russia’s Rosatom Corp. But now we hear that if they form a government, they are likely to abandon their pre-election promises.
I'm not sure that this will happen, let's wait and see.
What will be the consequences if this really happens?
Nothing very good will come out of this. Truth is, the Bulgarian Socialist Party did not win the elections, so it can hardly be kept responsible for not keeping all its pre-election promises.
A party should be held accountable for what it has promised only if it wins majority at the elections and forms its own government.
A party can not be held accountable for what it has promised when it is just not possible for it to keep its promises. This is how it works not only in Bulgaria, but everywhere in Europe.
The Bulgarian-American Credit Bank is said to be ready to provide BGN 500 M emergency loan to small and medium-sized enterprises right after the government is formed. Could this be a lifeline for Bulgaria’s business?
I am afraid I have no information about this.
Are new early elections a likely scenario?
Of course, such a scenario is possible, but I consider it unlikely.
It is more likely that Bulgarians will see the politicians in this parliament cobble together one or more than one governments. I believe that the parliament will survive until the end of its term.
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