Bulgaria is entering the early stages of a flu epidemic, according to Chief State Health Inspector Assoc. Prof. Angel Kunchev. While the situation is not yet critical, hospitals in the UK are already overwhelmed by the superflu, prompting authorities there to reinstate some of the precautions previously seen during COVID-19. In Bulgaria, the average incidence remains around 105 cases per 10,000 people, but epidemic thresholds, which are at least twice this level, are expected to be reached soon.

Data from the National Center for Infectious and Parasitic Diseases show that out of 135 samples tested last week, 14 were positive for the influenza virus. The strain circulating in Bulgaria matches the dominant variant in the UK and much of the Northern Hemisphere. This year’s strain carries seven genetic mutations, compared to the usual three or four, increasing its ability to infect a larger portion of the population and potentially leading to more hospitalizations. While reports from England indicate a slightly more severe course of illness, Kunchev stressed that this is primarily due to higher infection numbers and is not comparable to COVID-19 in scale or severity.

The flu is expected to spread more rapidly following the Christmas and New Year holidays due to increased social interactions, with the epidemic likely peaking in the second half of January. Children aged 5 to 14 are projected to be the most affected, with younger children also at risk. Kunchev suggested that “flu holidays” may be necessary to reduce transmission in schools.

Preventive measures remain crucial. The health inspector emphasized proper ventilation, physical distancing, and personal hygiene. Masks are most effective when worn by infected individuals, as this reduces the risk of transmitting the virus to others. People exhibiting flu-like symptoms should avoid workplaces, and parents should refrain from sending sick children to kindergartens or schools.

The flu vaccine remains an important tool, protecting primarily against severe illness rather than infection itself. Despite the seven genetic changes in this year’s virus, the vaccine is still effective, reducing the risk of serious disease in approximately 60% of those vaccinated. Kunchev noted that the immunization window for vulnerable populations has already passed.

Annually, influenza results in between 1,000 and 2,000 deaths in Bulgaria, depending on the intensity of the epidemic. Health authorities are monitoring the situation closely and preparing to respond as infection rates increase in the coming weeks.