Exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once the wealthiest man in Russia and now a vocal opponent of the Kremlin, argues that Vladimir Putin is under pressure yet still has the means to prolong the war. Speaking from London, where he has lived since his release from a decade in a Siberian prison, Khodorkovsky describes the war in Ukraine as a tool Putin uses to conceal his political and economic failures.

According to him, the Russian president has strong reasons to negotiate seriously. Economic strains and difficulties in military recruitment are intensifying, while maintaining control over the occupied Ukrainian territories presents enormous challenges. Khodorkovsky estimates that rebuilding these regions will cost at least 0–300 billion, possibly more if additional areas remain under Russian occupation. Beyond financial burdens, he highlights the demographic challenge: of the six million people tied to the occupied territories, many are elderly or disabled, requiring state support rather than contributing to the workforce.

Asked about resistance, Khodorkovsky does not foresee a partisan struggle but points out that Ukrainians, unlike Russians, have retained traditions of fighting for their rights. He compares the Donbass region to Russia’s coal-mining Kemerovo area, recalling how miners once protested by marching to Moscow in the 1990s. While such protests have disappeared in Russia, Ukrainians still have that capacity, which he believes creates a problem for Putin “five times bigger than Chechnya.”

On the international front, Khodorkovsky stresses the importance of Donald Trump for Putin. He argues that Trump represents the most favorable U.S. leader Russia could hope for, offering a unique chance for international recognition. Yet, he warns that Trump’s leniency risks emboldening the Kremlin. While Putin admires Trump and sees him as a strongman, Khodorkovsky insists that the Russian president remains cautious, careful not to cross red lines that could provoke an American response. Still, he adds, any impression that the U.S. is unwilling or unable to counter Russia - particularly if Washington shifts focus toward China - could have grave consequences.

As for domestic sentiment, Khodorkovsky estimates that only about 30% of Russians support the war, largely older citizens who are not expected to fight. Around half of the population remains indifferent but fears defeat, while 15–20% are openly against the conflict. He notes that the war has become more visible to ordinary Russians through drone strikes on oil refineries, fuel shortages, and the closure of airports in the European part of the country. Volunteer recruitment has also sharply declined in recent months, forcing the state to pressure conscripts into joining the front under the pretense of voluntary service - something Khodorkovsky views as a dangerous deception.

Despite these difficulties, he concedes that Putin can still continue the war for some time. However, in his view, the Kremlin leader has already lost in strategic terms. “He didn’t achieve regime change in Kyiv; what he holds are devastated lands,” Khodorkovsky says. For Russia as a nation, he argues, the war is a failure, but for Putin personally it has secured another five or six years in power. The Russian elite may not yet acknowledge it, but sooner or later, he believes, they too will see that the war has only deepened the country’s decline.

Source: Corriere Della Sera