War is no longer a distant or unimaginable prospect, EU Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius said at a security forum in Brussels. Citing NATO's readiness plans, he noted that only half of the necessary funding is currently available, warning that Europe faces what he described as the “perfect storm.”

Kubilius outlined several converging risks: the ongoing war in Ukraine with no clear pathway to peace, continued Russian aggression, and a lack of diplomatic breakthroughs. According to him, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no interest in negotiations and may even be planning future attacks on EU territory. At the same time, Kubilius pointed out the gradual strategic withdrawal of the United States from Europe, even though it remains a NATO member. This shift, he said, signals a deepening crisis for the continent.

The EU, Kubilius emphasized, must eventually be ready to take on more responsibility and replace the security role traditionally held by the U.S. He estimated the cost of such a transition to be between 300 billion and one trillion dollars. “We are not formally at war, but we are living in wartime,” he said. Preparation during this period of uneasy peace is essential, as deterrence remains the only way to prevent further aggression.

He highlighted the importance of military production and defense industry capabilities in deterring conflict. Investment, not bureaucracy, must take precedence in strengthening the EU’s cooperation with NATO. Kubilius stressed that European defense readiness should not be obstructed by administrative hurdles.

When asked what kind of war Europe should prepare for, the Commissioner pointed to Ukraine, where 80% of strikes are carried out using drones. Both Ukraine and Russia are producing around four million drones each year, illustrating the scale and nature of modern conflict. In response, Kubilius called for the creation of a “military Schengen” – a system that would ease the transport of military equipment across EU borders. He revealed that the European Commission plans to introduce a proposal for this initiative by the end of the year.