The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) now expects Bulgaria’s economy to grow by 2.6% in 2025, followed by a slight slowdown to 2.3% in 2026. This marks a downward revision from its previous outlook in December, which projected 2.8% growth in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. According to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook, the country's economic momentum will be supported primarily by household consumption, driven by robust income increases and a continued rise in household credit. In addition, government investment, particularly through EU funding mechanisms, will continue to underpin growth.

The report highlights that export performance will remain subdued, as Bulgaria faces weaker demand from other EU member states. Inflation is projected to pick up, with the OECD forecasting headline inflation to rise from 2.4% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, before easing back to 2.8% in 2026. At the same time, wages are expected to remain under upward pressure, which could complicate efforts to stabilize inflation in the medium term.

On the labor market front, the OECD foresees gradual improvement. The unemployment rate, which stood at 4.2% in 2024, is projected to decline slightly to 4.1% in 2025 and further to 4.0% in 2026, reflecting continued labor market tightness. However, the report stresses the need for stronger activation policies and better mechanisms to bring workers from the informal economy into formal employment.

The OECD also notes that Bulgaria’s interest rates largely mirror those in the euro area due to the currency board arrangement. Yet, the transmission of monetary policy into the domestic economy remains limited. As a result, household credit is expanding rapidly, prompting the organization to recommend the introduction of additional macroprudential tools to manage financial stability risks.

In terms of public finances, the OECD expects Bulgaria to maintain a fiscal deficit within the EU’s 3% ceiling. Meanwhile, structural improvements—such as creating a more efficient and business-friendly administrative environment - are seen as key to boosting private investment.

Bulgaria’s push toward eurozone membership also receives attention. The OECD confirms that Bulgaria has formally requested an assessment of its readiness to adopt the euro, with accession currently targeted for January 2026.