Political scientist Prof. Svetoslav Malinov predicted that early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria are likely to be held next year, following the official announcement of the country’s entry into the eurozone. Speaking to the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR), he stated that political dynamics would naturally lead to elections, as various parties would attempt to claim credit for the eurozone membership. Malinov expects this will pave the way for a new, more stable and representative majority in parliament.

He emphasized that no-confidence votes serve several political purposes, though toppling a government is rarely among the immediate outcomes. Instead, such motions tend to generate public debate and bring attention to specific political figures and parties. Malinov characterized the current no-confidence motion as a competition for influence within the pro-Russian, anti-European segment of Bulgarian politics. According to him, parties such as “Revival,” “Greatness,” and MECH are contending for dominance within this limited voter base.

Malinov noted that those supporting the no-confidence vote are distancing themselves from Bulgaria’s European integration. Regardless of political maneuvering, he believes the current government can maintain a parliamentary majority, even without the backing of the DPS-Dogan.

Commenting on the WCC-DB's stance, Malinov rejected claims that the coalition is compromising by not supporting the vote. He said their position reflects a balanced and pragmatic approach. In his view, efforts to bring down the government in the name of radical opposition without regard for the broader objective are counterproductive. He expects that after eurozone accession, WCC-DB will return to a role in opposition and even GERB may reassess the purpose of sustaining the current government.

Malinov described the eurozone as the coalition’s main survival tool. Once that goal is reached, he argues, the rationale for the current political configuration will vanish. He expressed concern that potential instability may delay rather than prevent Bulgaria’s eurozone accession, with international partners possibly waiting for a new, more stable political leadership.

He believes the ruling coalition is ultimately damaging to its participants, especially GERB and BSP. While he finds TISP harder to assess, he observed that there remains a perception of Delyan Peevski’s influence, both through legislative initiatives and the placement of his associates. Although GERB, BSP, and TISP appear open to cooperating with Peevski behind the scenes, they still avoid formally involving him in public positions. According to Malinov, this dual approach will persist until Bulgaria joins the eurozone.

After that, he foresees two potential developments: either new elections will be held, or the majority will be officially restructured to include Peevski and DPS, along with formal changes in parliamentary committees, government bodies, and the Council of Ministers.

Malinov also addressed the issue of the U.S. Magnitsky sanctions, highlighting that they target individuals with confirmed involvement in corruption or human rights abuses. He stressed the moral implications of maintaining political alliances with sanctioned figures. The recent events, including the departure of DPS-Dogan following a scandal and Borisov’s subsequent statements, reflect a political landscape in which the links between events and political responses are increasingly overt and lacking in subtlety, he concluded.

Source: BNR