Bulgaria is gradually narrowing the economic gap with the average level of the European Union, with preliminary estimates showing that in 2024, the country will surpass the symbolic threshold of reaching two-thirds of the EU's average GDP per capita in terms of purchasing power parity. This marks another year of convergence, albeit at a slower pace than some of its neighbors.

Since hitting a low of 28% of the EU average in 1999, Bulgaria has steadily improved this indicator, advancing by one to three points annually. Despite this consistent upward trend, the pace of catching up is more moderate compared to Romania, which started from a weaker position before both countries joined the EU but is now advancing significantly faster.

Analyst Adrian Nikolov from the Institute of Market Economics notes that in 2024, France and Finland will be closest to the EU average at 99% and 103%, respectively. The broader distribution still shows a divide between older and newer member states, with countries like Bulgaria remaining in the lower half of the economic spectrum.

Greece remains an important reference point. While Bulgaria had reached 38% in 2006, Greece was at its peak of 96%. Following a sharp decline during the financial crisis, Greece’s economy fell to 62% of the EU average in 2020. However, successful reforms have since lifted it above the 70% mark again. As a result, both countries now appear to be moving in parallel, though Bulgaria is unlikely to surpass Greece in the near future.

Romania’s progress stands out. It managed to surpass the 70% level as early as 2020 and is on track to exceed 80% if current economic trends continue. This puts it on course to join the group of more developed Central and Eastern European economies, illustrating a sharp contrast to Bulgaria’s more gradual progress.