A recent report from Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service and the Bundeswehr has revealed concerns that Russia is likely preparing for a large-scale conflict with NATO. According to the report, Russian President Vladimir Putin views relations with the West as an ongoing systemic conflict and is ready to use military force to pursue his objectives. The document suggests that by the end of the decade, Russia may be fully equipped for a major conventional war.

While Russia currently lacks the capacity to launch a full-scale attack on the entire NATO alliance, Lithuanian intelligence warns that Russia may initiate a smaller military operation against one or more NATO members to test the alliance's response. This could help the Kremlin assess the seriousness of NATO’s commitments.

Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the report indicates that Russia’s Air Force and Navy remain operational, and once the situation in Ukraine stabilizes, Russian forces could be rapidly redeployed to the borders of the Baltic states. It also highlights that Russia is replenishing its losses and that the country’s defense industry is producing more than sufficient resources for its current military operations.

Russia’s military spending has been increasing dramatically, with expenditures expected to reach around 120 billion euros in 2025, accounting for over 6% of its GDP. This represents a fourfold increase since 2021. The Kremlin’s plan includes expanding the army to 1.5 million personnel and increasing the amount of military equipment near NATO’s borders by 30-50%.

Relations between Russia and NATO have been tense since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the Kremlin frequently using nuclear rhetoric and conducting military exercises near NATO borders. In response, Western nations continue to support Ukraine with arms supplies and reinforce sanctions against Russia. Estonian intelligence has also warned of Russia’s preparation for a potential military conflict with NATO. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has acknowledged the possibility of such a war and urged NATO allies to remain vigilant.

Recently, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda also indicated that Russia could launch a new offensive within the next few years. He believes that Lithuania has a window of four to five years to adequately prepare for such a scenario.