Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov has warned that Russia remains committed to its imperial ambitions and sees the countries of the former Warsaw Pact as part of its long-term expansion plans. Speaking at a conference in Kyiv marking the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Budanov emphasized that the Kremlin has not abandoned its strategic objectives.

He stated that Russia does not view itself as a federation but as an empire that requires territorial expansion to sustain its influence. According to him, Moscow’s leadership envisions an empire that includes Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Without Ukraine, he argued, the idea of a Russian empire is impossible.

Budanov suggested that, in the worst-case scenario where Russia succeeds in absorbing Belarus and Ukraine, the next targets would be Poland, followed by the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Bulgaria. He described the reconsolidation of the former Warsaw Pact states as a "minimum task" for Moscow.

The Warsaw Pact, established in 1955, was a military alliance between the Soviet Union and its satellite states, including Albania, Bulgaria, East Germany, Poland, Romania, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. While the alliance dissolved after the fall of the Soviet Union, Budanov warned that Russia’s long-term vision includes reasserting control over these nations.

Western intelligence agencies have increasingly raised concerns about Russia’s military ambitions beyond Ukraine. Reports since 2023 have warned of a potential Russian attack on NATO member states as early as 2025. German intelligence has suggested that Moscow is preparing for a military confrontation with the alliance, possibly by 2026 or later.

In December 2024, the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti reported that Russia had rehearsed military strikes on Finland, the Baltic states, and parts of Norway. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz also acknowledged the risk of an attack on Poland, stressing the need for preparedness. Meanwhile, US intelligence assessed that while Russia aims to avoid direct conflict with NATO, it continues to employ asymmetric tactics that stop short of full-scale war.

Norwegian Chief of Defence General Eirik Kristoffersen estimated that NATO has two to three years to prepare for a possible escalation, while German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has warned of a potential Russian strike on a NATO ally by 2029.