Bulgaria’s draft budget for 2024 raises questions about its realism and whether it is a mere strategy to appease the European Commission and the European Central Bank, avoiding blame for missing fiscal targets. Journalist Stefan Antonov expressed doubts about the government's ability to meet the 3% deficit threshold while fulfilling promises to raise spending on salaries and pensions without raising taxes. Tanya Petrova echoed these concerns, suggesting that the budget would likely rely on “cunning” accounting tricks rather than genuine cuts in income, with the government positioning itself to claim that problems occurred before they took office.

The budget deficit, expected to surpass 3% of GDP according to European accounting standards, could be a significant hurdle for Bulgaria’s eurozone accession. While the government may attempt to convince the EU that the deficit is within acceptable limits, Antonov warned that such efforts would likely be politically motivated and fail to meet the criteria for joining the eurozone. He predicted that Bulgaria would not achieve membership until at least 2028-2029, citing the example of Croatia, which had complied with inflation criteria for several years but later deviated from it.

With the country’s finances deteriorating over the past few years, Antonov and Petrova criticized the government's mismanagement and political games surrounding the budget. They pointed out that recent borrowing has left Bulgaria in a precarious fiscal situation even before joining the eurozone, and the failure to meet eurozone criteria may be used as an alibi for the lack of progress on membership.

Both Antonov and Petrova also reflected on the leadership choices within the Ministry of Finance, including the quiet appointment of Lyudmila Petkova to head the Agency for the Prevention of Financial Crimes, calling it a poor decision. Antonov criticized the potential return of Simeon Dyankov to a key position, referencing a past scandal where Dyankov was involved in manipulating data for international reports. He likened this potential appointment to handing over the keys to a safe to a thief.

In the end, both journalists emphasized that the priority should be Bulgaria's public finances, not its ambitions to join the eurozone, which could ultimately do without the country.

Source: BNR interview