Bulgaria’s Economic Growth Outpaces Expectations, Inflation to Determine Eurozone Path
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Bulgaria's economy showed a stronger performance than anticipated
Economists have urged Bulgaria’s leadership to submit an application to the European Commission and the European Central Bank for an extraordinary convergence report on joining the eurozone. This appeal was directed to the Speaker of the National Assembly, the Bulgarian Prime Minister, and the President. The petition comes in light of concerns over the draft budget presented by the caretaker government, which proposes significant fiscal expansion. On Nova TV, financial expert Boris Petrov raised concerns, noting that such an expansion does not align with Bulgaria’s fixed exchange rate or its adherence to the currency board, adding that it raises questions about the country’s fiscal discipline and future direction.
In contrast, economist Stoyan Panchev argued that the collapse of the currency board at this stage would be nonsensical, suggesting that the only solution would be to join the eurozone. Petrov, however, disagreed, stating that once Bulgaria enters the European Monetary Mechanism, the exchange rate will be fixed in accordance with the requirements of the eurozone. He believes the government is actively seeking political consensus for the adoption of the euro, while acknowledging the ongoing debate about the national budget deficit.
Regarding Bulgaria’s readiness for eurozone membership, Petrov is confident that the country meets all the necessary criteria. However, Panchev expressed reservations about this view. He pointed out that Bulgaria’s inflation rate is currently half of that in Zagreb. While inflation in Croatia was lower for some time, it surged after the country adopted the euro, a situation Panchev sees as indicative of potential risks for Bulgaria. Petrov refuted this connection, attributing inflation in Bulgaria to more fundamental economic factors rather than any direct impact of the euro.
Source: Nova TV
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