Bulgaria’s Economic Growth Outpaces Expectations, Inflation to Determine Eurozone Path
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Bulgaria's economy showed a stronger performance than anticipated
The 2024 Human Freedom Index (HFI), compiled by the Cato Institute and the Canadian Fraser Institute, evaluates personal and economic freedoms across 165 countries, representing 98% of the global population. Based on 86 indicators across 12 categories, each country receives a score between 0 and 10. The 2024 edition, using 2022 data, shows an average global score of 6.82, reflecting a modest recovery of 0.09 points after the sharp decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This recovery has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, which stood at 6.98 in 2019.
Switzerland retained the top spot with 9.14 points, followed by New Zealand (9.08) and Denmark (9.04). The top 10 also includes Luxembourg, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Australia, and Estonia. At the other end of the ranking, Syria and Yemen scored the lowest, with 3.10 and 3.78 points, respectively.
The index underscores the interconnectedness of individual and economic freedoms. It reveals that higher levels of freedom correlate with greater prosperity, less corruption, higher life satisfaction, longer life expectancy, reduced infant mortality, and greater scientific advancement. Economically freer nations produce more than twice the GDP per capita of the least free countries.
Bulgaria ranked 47th, scoring 7.77 points, an increase of 0.09 points from the previous year. Positioned between Montenegro and Barbados, the country moved up one spot in the rankings. However, the overall trend over two decades indicates stagnation, with a significant decline during the pandemic highlighting persistent issues in individual and economic freedoms.
In the category of individual freedom, Bulgaria’s scores varied significantly. While the country excelled in security and safety (9.7 points) and freedom of movement (9.9 points), it struggled with the rule of law (5.5 points), which remains its weakest area. This score reflects issues in criminal and civil law effectiveness and procedural justice, placing Bulgaria on par with nations like Oman and Guinea-Bissau. The country performed well in freedom of religion (8.1 points) and association (8.6 points), but its score for freedom of speech and information (6.3 points) was hindered by concerns about media freedom.
On economic freedom, Bulgaria’s scores showed similar disparities. High government spending and subsidies negatively impacted its score for the size of government (7.1 points), while issues in judicial independence and property rights kept the judiciary score low (5.9 points). Inflation in 2022 affected access to stable money (7.6 points), though improvements in 2023 could boost future results. Bulgaria benefited from low trade tariffs due to EU membership, earning an 8.4 in freedom of international trade. However, heavy regulatory burdens on business and labor markets limited the score for regulation of credit, labor, and business (6.8 points).
The country’s longstanding challenges—inefficiencies in the judiciary, excessive regulations, and high government spending—continue to suppress economic growth and hinder progress in individual freedoms. Despite small improvements, Bulgaria remains far behind its potential, with its current performance reflecting setbacks of nearly two decades.
Source: Institute for Market Economics
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