New data has revealed that 2024 has become the first calendar year to exceed a 1.5C temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels, marking a significant milestone in the planet's warming trajectory. This year has been recorded as the hottest on record, according to the European Copernicus climate service. Although this does not mean the 1.5C target is officially breached, as the target refers to a long-term average, the milestone brings the world closer to surpassing it.

In 2024, global temperatures were roughly 1.6C higher than those during the pre-industrial era, surpassing the previous record set in 2023 by just over 0.1C. This marks the past decade as the warmest on record, with climate experts attributing the rise primarily to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. While natural weather events, like the El Niño phenomenon, contributed to the higher temperatures, the primary cause remains the continued release of fossil fuel emissions.

The record-setting heat in 2024 was felt across many regions, including scorching temperatures in West Africa, severe droughts in South America, heavy rainfall in central Europe, and strong storms in North America and South Asia. Experts have confirmed that these extreme weather events have been intensified by climate change. This week, wildfires fueled by high winds and dry conditions ravaged Los Angeles, a stark reminder of the increasing frequency of such events in a warming world.

The 1.5C threshold was set in the 2015 Paris Agreement as a global climate target, particularly for the most vulnerable countries that view this threshold as critical for their survival. However, climate experts have warned that the world is dangerously close to breaching this limit. Myles Allen, a professor at the University of Oxford, noted that while it is difficult to pinpoint exactly when the 1.5C threshold will be crossed, the trajectory suggests it could happen by the early 2030s.

The rise in temperatures is not only linked to higher air temperatures but also to other climate markers such as sea surface temperatures and the moisture content in the atmosphere. Experts have noted that 2024's heat surpassed expectations, with some scientists expressing concern that it could signal an acceleration in global warming. Helge Gößling, a climate physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, suggested that the extra warmth observed since 2023, exceeding previous models, could be a sign of a more rapid warming trend, though it is difficult to determine if this is a temporary fluctuation or a longer-term shift.

Despite the alarming trends, scientists emphasize that the future climate is still within human control, and decisive actions to reduce emissions could mitigate the worst outcomes. Even if the world surpasses the 1.5C threshold, limiting warming to 1.6C or 1.7C would significantly reduce the severity of climate impacts compared to scenarios where temperatures reach 3C or 4C. Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist, urged that while we are close to exceeding the target, strong mitigation efforts can still prevent the worst-case scenarios. The accelerating pace of climate change highlights the urgent need for international action to cut emissions and limit further global warming.

Source: European Copernicus Climate Service