After weeks of heavy offensive, Russian forces have made significant progress in the northwest of Toretsk, advancing rapidly in the region. Geolocated footage shared on January 6 indicates that Russian troops have reached the administrative border of Toretsk to the northwest. While a Russian blogger reports that approximately 90% of the city is under Russian control, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that 71% of Toretsk was captured by January 7.

The ISW notes that Russia's tactical approach to the fighting in the area has shifted. Previously, Russian forces operated in fireteams of around five soldiers, but they are now attacking in larger platoons of up to 20 soldiers. According to a Russian blogger on January 7, this new strategy of simultaneous multi-pronged attacks across various areas has helped the Russian forces make significant strides in Toretsk.

Though ISW refrains from predicting the precise direction of future Russian efforts near Toretsk, analysts believe that Russian forces may push west from the city and Shcherbinovka, aiming to advance through villages like Nelipovka, Pleshcheyevka, and Ivano-Frankivsk. This would lead them toward the T-05-16 highway connecting Toretsk to Konstantinovka. Control of this route could give Russian troops access to a critical Ukrainian defense line stretching from Konstantinovka to Druzhkovka and Kramatorsk.

Additionally, Russian forces might advance further northwest of Toretsk and south of Chasovoy Yar towards Bela Gora and Aleksandro-Shultino, potentially clearing out a Ukrainian "pocket" in the area and strengthening their position for a more direct assault on Konstantinovka. This advance would disrupt Ukrainian counterattacks and create more favorable conditions for Russian artillery systems and drone operations targeting Konstantinovka.

Another potential Russian move could be to advance from New York and Leonidovka, pushing toward the H-20 Donetsk-Konstantinovka and H-32 Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highways, which would pressure Konstantinovka from the south and secure a stable flank for further operations. Experts highlight that Russian forces may progress faster in the smaller settlements and open fields surrounding Toretsk, compared to their slower advancements in the city itself.

If Russian forces can maintain momentum, they may attempt short, mechanized attacks similar to those executed in the Kurakhovskoye and Ugledarskoye directions in the fall of 2024, provided they have sufficient armored vehicle reserves. This offensive east of Pokrovsk and west of Toretsk is likely part of Russia's broader strategy to capture even small, strategically insignificant areas.

However, experts believe that Russian forces will not pose a serious threat to Konstantinovka unless the military command shifts additional troops from other fronts to reinforce the efforts in this region. Despite these ongoing advances, analysts suggest that Russian forces may continue to prioritize areas like Pokrovskoye and Kurakhovskoye, adjusting their focus from other sections of the front, such as Kupyanskoye and Borovskoye, to bolster operations near Toretsk.

Source: ISW