In a surprise operation launched earlier this week, Syrian rebel groups have rapidly advanced towards Aleppo city, marking one of the most significant offensives in years against pro-Assad forces in northwest Syria. The attack, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an al-Qaeda offshoot, has resulted in heavy casualties and captured significant territory.

Rebels, bolstered by some Turkey-backed factions, have reportedly captured more than 50 regime-controlled villages and towns across Aleppo's outskirts and eastern Idlib. Videos circulated online show clashes in Aleppo’s Rashidin neighborhood and nearby areas, underscoring the operation’s rapid gains. The offensive, named “Deter the Aggression,” aims to push back against pro-Assad, Iranian, and Russian attacks on Idlib, the last major rebel stronghold.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the rebel coalition has advanced to within two kilometers of Aleppo city, challenging the Assad regime’s defensive lines. SOHR reported that airstrikes, particularly by Russian forces, have targeted rebel-held territories, killing at least 24 civilians on Friday. The strikes have intensified as the rebels gained momentum, seizing strategic assets, including T-72 tanks, and capturing several regime soldiers.

Rebel forces have also disrupted critical transport routes, shutting down the M-5 highway connecting Aleppo to Damascus and moving to encircle Saraqib, a key junction for the M-4 and M-5 highways. Saraqib is also a hub for Iranian-aligned forces in Syria, further highlighting the offensive's broader aim to diminish Tehran's influence in the region. Iranian media reported the death of Brigadier General Kiumars Pourahmadi, a top military adviser in Aleppo, during the clashes.

Despite the rebels' successes, a senior Syrian security official denied claims of rebel advances into Aleppo city itself. Reinforcements have reportedly been dispatched to bolster regime defenses, with the official describing ongoing battles as fierce but restricted to areas west of the city.

The offensive appears to have taken advantage of regional instability, coinciding with Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Lebanese group, a staunch ally of Assad, has played a pivotal role in securing regime-held areas, raising questions about its ability to support Syrian forces while engaged in multiple fronts.

A key goal of the rebel operation is the reclamation of areas that were depopulated by Assad-led forces during the 2019–2020 campaigns, when over a million civilians were displaced under Russian airstrikes. Rebel groups aim to facilitate the return of displaced populations to these areas, though much of the territory captured in recent days remains devoid of civilian presence.

Turkey, which backs some opposition forces, has reportedly sought to limit the scope of the offensive, fearing further escalation amidst existing tensions. Turkish sources indicated the operation was partly a response to the lack of results from de-escalation agreements, which had failed to curb Syrian government attacks on Idlib’s civilian population.

Background:

The broader conflict has its roots in Syria’s 2011 uprising, which evolved into a complex war involving local factions, regional players, and global powers. Rebel-held Idlib remains a focal point of this protracted conflict, with millions of civilians trapped under deteriorating conditions. The latest rebel advances demonstrate their capacity to disrupt pro-Assad forces but also raise concerns of intensified violence in the already war-torn region.