The Bulgarian real estate market has remained stagnant, reflecting last year's levels, according to Alexander Bochev, chairman of the National Real Estate Association (NREA), in an interview with BTA. He discussed the latest data from the Registration Agency regarding transactions in the third quarter and the upcoming October 30 celebration of Real Estate Brokers and Agents.

Notably, larger cities, especially the coastal regions of Varna and Burgas, have seen a rise in transactions. This trend indicates a shift in the real estate market from smaller settlements to urban areas, aligning with Bulgaria's demographic and economic patterns. Bochev anticipates that the final quarter of 2024 will yield transaction levels comparable to the same period last year, with an estimated 62,368 sales. If this trend continues, total sales for the year could range between 215,000 and 216,000, similar to 2023's figures.

Regarding housing prices in 2025, Bochev expects the current upward trend to persist, projecting an increase of over 10 percent annually. However, the third quarter saw a decline in property sales compared to the previous quarter, with major cities like Burgas, Varna, Plovdiv, and Sofia experiencing an average drop of around 11.3 percent. Bochev noted that the third quarter typically witnesses lower activity due to the holiday season, reflecting the recent data from the Registration Agency.

Despite the seasonal downturn, the overall stability of the market remains evident, with a slight sales increase observed in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same timeframe last year. Specifically, the first quarter experienced an average sales growth of approximately 11 percent year-on-year, while the second quarter reported a growth of 0.02 percent, followed by a slight drop of 0.25 percent in the third quarter.

The market conditions are favorable for activity, with stable interest rates on loans and deposits and a low unemployment rate providing confidence for long-term loan repayments. However, Bochev attributes the current market stagnation to uncertainty surrounding Bulgaria's potential entry into the Eurozone. He believes that prices may rise following this accession, or remain stable if entry does not occur.

Bochev summarized the past four years of Bulgaria's real estate market, noting that while overall sales have seen a slight decrease compared to previous years, property prices continue to rise by an average of 10 to 15 percent, with more pronounced increases in major cities. In Sofia, the demand for larger properties remains strong, particularly in neighborhoods known for family-friendly amenities. Conversely, areas near educational institutions attract interest in smaller apartments from students and young professionals.

New construction in Sofia is particularly active in neighborhoods such as "Manastirski Livadi," "Malinova Dolina," and "Ovcha Kupel," where there is still room for development. In contrast, neighborhoods with limited availability, such as "Oborishte," "Lozenets," "Iztok," and "Ivan Vazov," are experiencing price increases in older properties.

While the overall market appears frozen, Varna and Burgas continue to thrive, with Varna reporting a 4 percent sales increase and Burgas achieving a remarkable 43 percent rise in real estate transactions in the second quarter. However, Varna saw a minor decline of 0.6 percent in the third quarter, whereas Burgas maintained positive momentum with a 19.11 percent increase.

Post-COVID-19, there has been a notable rise in interest for vacation properties, primarily driven by Bulgarian buyers as many foreign investors have exited the market. Bochev pointed out that while some vacation property prices have increased around Nessebar, others have stagnated due to poor maintenance and unresolved payment issues from past Russian buyers.

The typical buyer in Bulgaria remains financially secure, with an average age of 35 to 40, capable of obtaining long-term loans. Although the profile of buyers has not dramatically shifted, recent regulatory changes may push lower-income individuals out of the market. However, this demographic may still find opportunities in more affordable, smaller properties in less expensive neighborhoods.