Gallup Survey: The Winner of the Elections in Bulgaria will be Decided at the Last Minute
If the elections were held in the last ten days of March, the result would be as follows: "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB) and GERB-SDS would have similar support with 26.9% and 26.5%, Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) and "Vazrazhdane" would contest the third place, respectively with 13.3% and 13%. In fifth place is the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with 7.2%. In the fight for a chance to reach the barrier "in a package" are "Bulgarian Rise" with 3.5% and "Levitsata" with 3.3%. "There Is Such a People" (TISP) has 3%.
The results are from a Gallup International Balkan survey for the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR), showing the declarative attitudes toward the end of the campaign. It was conducted between March 18 and 26, 2023 among 1,004 people using the face-to-face tablet method.
However, hundreds of thousands have yet to decide, and the numbers at this point should – as always – be seen as a snapshot of declarative attitudes rather than a forecast. With close values, fluctuations in activity, sudden developments, etc., sensitive dynamics are possible, the sociological agency notes.
According to "Gallup", the winner of the election will be decided by the votes of the decision makers at the last moment. In a better starting position is the one that has more "hardening" support. Dynamic developments are also possible regarding the third place. The ability to procure firm and predictable support can also resolve the struggle for the barrier.
40.1% said they would definitely vote - levels close to the declarative turnout before the October 2022 election. On this basis, a turnout close to that of the previous election is assumed, with the percentage calculated against the formal turnout yet to be known voter lists. Fluctuations are possible. 4.1% of those who said they would vote said they would prefer "I support no one" if the election were held today.
Gallup's two-tier nested sample is representative of the country's adult population. The maximum standard deviation is ±3.1% at the 50 percent shares. 1% of the entire sample is equal to about 54 thousand people.
"Alpha Research" survey for the upcoming elections.
"Market Links" survey for the upcoming elections.
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