Demographics in Bulgaria: Not a Single One Municipality has a Positive Natural Increase in 2021
No municipality has a positive natural increase in 2021. This is shown by the data from the analysis of the Institute for Market Economy for the data on population growth in Bulgaria.
“While in the mechanical movement there are winning and losing parts of the country, which even - as we saw in the year of the pandemic sometimes swap places - in the natural deterioration it remains ubiquitous. This, in turn, means that the serious challenges facing the Bulgarian economy posed by shrinking and aging populations are much closer in the future”, the IME predicts.
In 2021, the difference between mortality and birth rate at the national level is -90.3 thousand people, compared to - 65.7 thousand people in 2020 and -46 thousand people in the period between 2017 and 2019. In other words , the pandemic (and its side effects - overloading the health system, for example) has led to almost twofold deterioration in nominal natural increase.
The largest registered decline in population as a result of natural processes is in Sofia - with 8.8 thousand people, followed by Plovdiv (decline by 2.7 thousand people), Varna (2.4 thousand), Ruse (2.2 thousand) ) and Stara Zagora (1.8 thousand people). It is noteworthy that the capital is experiencing the fastest deterioration between 2020 and 2021, and the negative natural increase is almost four times higher than in 2017.
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