Mathematician: By the end of the week Omicron will be dominant in Bulgaria
By the end of the week, Omicron will be dominant in our country. This was stated by the mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov on Nova TV.
“The first thing it will cause is the reach of 10,000 cases a day. There is time for that to happen. No sharp peaks are expected because the fire does not burn evenly. Even if there are some, this will not last more than 2-3 days,” he added.
Vitanov confirmed that his forecast in November is still relevant. “Once Omicron becomes dominant, we will be in his captivity for 2-3 weeks. This will be the maximum, it will stay for a few days and then it will go down i.e. the expectations are that in the second half of February we will have reached the maximum and will go down”, the mathematician pointed out.
“Overall, the situation with COVID-19 is tolerable, but a slow deterioration is expected. The Delta variant is weakening, and Omicron has not yet become dominant. The basic reproductive number today is 1.11 – i.e. 100 people with COVID-19 infect another 111. The infection is spreading, but the number is below 1.3. This is because there are still beds in areas where the incidence is high. And where it is lower, the beds are decreasing,” he added.
“From the point of view of the occupancy of intensive care beds, the most unpleasant situation is in the North Central region - Silistra, Ruse, Veliko Tarnovo. It is 72.5%, but if nothing is done, it will be 80% by the end of the week. However, there are active elements that can change this - the government can take some measures to prevent these percentages,” said the mathematician.
According to him, whether a lockdown will be necessary in these areas or not is not only a medical but also a political decision. “The system is calculated so that even if it becomes 80%, it can last for some time. Total lockdown usually changes the picture in 10 days. In this wave, the rate of filling the beds was not over 2% per day, so it is expected not to reach 100% filling. This reserve of 20% cannot be expended in one day”, he explained.
“Ruse was a day or two over 80%, now it's 70% - nothing happened. You can spend some time at 80%. There are free intensive beds in the surrounding areas of the North Central region i.e. People who need intensive care can be taken there and the situation can be sustained,” Vitanov said.
The director of Hospital "Dr. Stefan Cherkezov" - Veliko Tarnovo, Dr. Stefan Filev commented on the new way of reporting the situation in relation to the occupancy of intensive care beds.
"I take it with reservations because different areas have different numbers of intensive beds. In Veliko Tarnovo we have 18 intensive beds. If they are busy at the moment and if we transfer patients to sub-intensive and normal COVID wards because they have improved or after death, does that mean we will move to a green zone because we have more free intensive care beds,” asked the doctor.
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