Market Links: Protest Vote May Shift Electoral Trends in Bulgaria
A week before the regular parliamentary elections, the distance between the main political players is maintained. GERB takes the lead, in second place are BSP and third are There is Such a People of Slavi Trifonov.
This shows a survey funded and implemented jointly by bTV and Market Links, conducted among 1,026 people over 18 in the period 18-25 March through face-to-face interview and online poll.
Democratic Bulgaria, Stand up! Thugs out! also have a chance to hurdle over the four-percent barrier and enter parliament. The VMRO are marginal.
According to the survey GERB garner 18.4% support of all respondents, and their credit rating among those who said they would vote is 22.8%. BSP garner 15.7% and of the people who will vote 18.1% the trust them. For the There Is Such a People 11.7% will vote, and of those who have declared that they will go to the polls - 12.7%.
8.2% of respondents will vote for MRF, and 9.0% of those who said they would vote support the Movement.
For Democratic Bulgaria 5.1% have declared their support and of those who will vote - 7.5%.
Stand up.BG have the support of 4.0%, but among people who said they would go to the polls it is 4.5%. According to the survey, the VMRO would win 2.7% and among those who said they would vote - 3.3%.
According to sociologists, the protest vote is expected to have an impact and reverse preliminary trends. The polling agency said it was unsustainable and could boost the performance of non-parliamentary opposition forces.
31% of those questioned were for postponing the regular parliamentary elections scheduled for April 4, 2021. 48% disagree with postponing the election, while 21% cannot say for sure.
The sociologist and manager of "Market Links" Dobromir Zhivkov explained that the epidemic situation can affect the outcome of the vote. According to him, about 30% of respondents believe that elections should be postponed. Nearly half of those questioned think that they should take place despite the increase in morbidity in our country.
Party affiliation is of no importance when it comes to the election postponement. The epidemic will have an impact on the elections and this will lead to a lower turnout, Zhivkov added.
It reduces the percentage of people who say categorically that they will exercise their right to vote. In the previous poll, 51% of respondents said they would vote, now they are 46%. The difference equates to about 350,000.
Before the vote, the polls results showed record distrust in the National Assembly (69%), the government (64%) and the judiciary (53%).
Trust is the foundation on which public relationships are built. The lack of this type of trust hinders the implementation of meaningful management policies, Zhivkov said.
In his words, sociologists have been warning of such a problem for years: 10% confidence in the National Assembly is an extremely low indicator, the sociologist said.
According to Dobromir Zhivkov, the figures will not apply to the new parliament because there is always an initial credit to new lawmakers.
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