Five parties will enter the next parliament for sure and for the other two the election campaign will be crucial, according to data of a Gallup International poll conducted among 1,010 people between January 7 and 15. Parliamentary elections are scheduled by President Rumen Radev for April 4.

Gallup said the data was a snapshot for mid-January and was not a prediction of an election result. The forecasts will be extremely difficult to make because of the uncertainty in the expected turnout, as well as because of the overall alarming social climate.

The largest share of respondents - 22.9%, replied that they would vote for GERB (in coalition with the UDF). According to the agency, the government is likely to receive a bonus for reducing coronavirus cases in the country, and so far the low vaccination rate appears to be still having no impact on the government's reputation.

The second most favored party among the respondents is BSP - with 19.2%. Along with GERB, BSP lost voters’ support in the summer (though not as much as GERB). The agency commented that the drop in support for BSP in the summer was also due to the fact that the protesters recognized other parties  as alternative and at the moment they are somewhat preventing BSP from monopolizing the potential protesting and punitive vote against the government.

The party of Slavi Trifonov “There is Such a People” garners 12,4% support and will for sure hurdle the 4-percent barrier and make it to the Parliament. For now, the party stopped growing and social analysts comment that it may have effect on the expected results of its election runners in different constituencies.  

As for the MRF, the current result of 10.9% of potential voters could rise if the party's expected mobilization as the election approaches is taken into account.

"Democratic Bulgaria" has a steady position among the parties with the prospect of being in parliament. This month - with 6.2%. However, there is a big difference between those firmly declaring that they will vote and the overall array of potential votes for this party, which means possible fluctuations in the voters’ support.

According to Gallup, for those running for election together, the IMRO/National Front (4.6%) and "Stand Up.bg"/"The Poisonous Trio" (4.5%) a strong election campaign will be essential.

The share of those who will vote but have not decided yet for whom is 10.4%. Only a third of those intending to vote admit that the health risks would turn them down. The same applies to the proportion of people who say they will vote but can't say who for.

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