War in Ukraine and Falling EU Demand Drive Bulgaria’s 2025 Export Decline
Bulgaria’s export sector continued to face challenges in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of decline
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Usually we understand if there is a bubble in a market it is just before it bursts, and before that we make very clever conclusions. My very clever conclusion is that we still do not have a real estate bubble, or at least it is not so inflated that we can expect it won't burst soon. This is what Georgi Pavlov, executive director of Address Real Estate, told Bloomberg TV Bulgaria.
"My reasons for this opinion are that prices have not yet reached the peak of 2008, and at the same time, the income of the population for these 10 years has risen, so even if there is a bubble, we are at a much earlier stage, or we are much better prepared for it ".
One of the measures used to estimate the growth in a given sector has a real base or it is a bubble, is the current return on assets and their current price, the guest said. "With residential properties, this is the rental price of the property, it has not yet reached its dangerous levels."
"In Bulgaria traditionally the yield on housing estates is about 6% and in the previous bubble it has dropped to 3%, which clearly indicates that the market is overestimated, yet this factor does not indicate the existence of a forming bubble. The increase in incomes has led to a rise in rents that people are willing to pay, which I think is currently between 4 and 5%. "
Property values in Sofia have surged by approximately €500 per square metre over the past year, according to data from one of Bulgaria’s largest real estate agencies. Across the country’s main cities, housing costs climbed by 20% in the final quarter of 2
Two-room dwellings make up the largest portion of newly built homes in Bulgaria, according to data for the fourth quarter of 2025.
In 2024, about 68% of households across the European Union were owner-occupied, a slight decline from 69% in 2023, according to Eurostat data. The remaining 32% of the EU population lived in rented homes, up from 31% the previous year.
Bulgaria is facing a sharp rise in construction material costs, which experts warn will drive property prices higher. Svetoslav Zhekov, chairman of the Chamber of Builders in Varna
As Bulgaria enters its first full year in the eurozone, the real estate market in Sofia begins 2026 with a shift from rapid, speculative growth to more stable, needs-driven demand.
Choosing between renting and buying a home is a decision that goes far beyond personal preference.
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