AFIS: Turkey Issue Causes Significant Electoral Shifts in Bulgaria
Days before the snap parliamentary elections, it is still unclear who the winner will be. The two leading parties GERB and BSP have equal chances, while BSP has an advantage among people who have decided that they will definitely vote. GERB still has reserves for expanding its electoral base among hesitating voters, showed the latest sociological survey of AFIS agency.
The forecast was prepared on the basis of a survey of public opinion conducted in the period March 18 – 22, 2017 among 1,500 adult citizens across the country.
According to the survey, the end result will be determined by a relatively small yet constantly decreasing group of voters (at the moment about 12% of voters) who stated in the survey that it is possible to make their decision at the very last minute.
There are five parties which are certain to enter the next Parliament. These are BSP, GERB, the United Patriots, DPS and Volya of businessman Veselin Mareshki. Another two coalitions have chances of crossing the 4% threshold – the Reformist Bloc – Glas Naroden and ABV – Movement 21. DOST which has low electoral support may also qualify because it has at its disposal a secret vote which will be revealed on election day itself.
Over the last few days, Turkey became the main topic which led to significant electoral shifts at the last minute – a process which is continuing even now.
On the one hand, this gives an advantage to the coalition of the united patriots who are traditionally firm on this terrain. They staunchly defend their third place and it is highly unlikely that they will give up their position to fourth-ranked DPS.
On the other hand, all of this is giving additional strength to the two leading formations BSP and GERB since a part of patriotically-minded voters do not approve of extreme actions and more radical messages.
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