Alpha Research: Bulgarian PM Borisov Remains Most Popular Party Leader
Bulgaria is entering the presidential campaign with continuing low trust in all major institutions: Parliament – 8%, Chief Prosecutor – 10%, Government – 16%, President – 21%.
The army and the police – two very important institutions given the current situation – are doing a bit better. The army remains with the most positive assessment (28% approval, 28% disapproval) but it is also affected by the polarisation tendency. With respect to the police, negative opinions predominate (44%), compared to positive assessments (17%).
Depending on the strength of the nominations and the dominant topics in the campaign, this permanent crisis of trust may lead to apathy or low electoral activity, showed data of Alpha Research based on a national, representative survey carried out between September 9 and September 15 with the participation of 1,026 people.
A total of 57% of eligible voters said they are willing to vote in the presidential elections; 51% said they will vote in the referendum which is to take place at the same time as the elections.
It is impossible to make any forecast about the elections before the ruling party has announced its nomination for president, added Alpha Research. But the initial assessment is as follows:
- A certain second round of elections.
- Mobilisation of the left-wing stimulated by rivalry among the nominees and formations in that spectrum
- GERB’s nomination will be of decisive significance with respect to the outcome of the second round of elections
In the last three months, approval of the Cabinet’s work dropped slightly from 18% to 16%, while assessments of the activity of the Prime Minister Borisov show growing polarisation – positive opinions increase (33%), but so do negative ones (40%).
The situation on the left is quite interesting. After the drama with the nomination of General Radev and the end of the pre-election alliance of BSP and ABV, former President Parvanov marks a new decline to 18.3%, while the leader of BSP Korneliya Ninova remains unharmed with 18.5%.
In this situation, the politician with the highest personal rating on the left is Tatyana Doncheva from Movement 21 with 21.9%.
Among the nationalists, the leader of VMRO and presidential nominee Krasimir Karakachanov enjoys the highest and growing support – 20%.
The ratings of other politicians in this spectrum are significantly lower – Valery Simeonov (13.4%) and Volen Siderov (4.5%).
“The formal happy ending with the presidential nomination of the Reformist bloc after months of hard negotiations has not led to positive developments for any of the leaders of the bloc,” commented Alpha Research.
All of them retain relatively low levels of public trust – Kuneva (9.8%), Kanev (7.8%), Nenchev (7.3%), Lukarski (5.4%). This narrow base of initial support bodes a difficult campaign for Traycho Traykov as nominee of the Reformist Bloc.
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