UniCredit Forecasts Renewed Investment Interest in Bulgaria

Business » FINANCE | January 11, 2012, Wednesday // 19:18
Bulgaria: UniCredit Forecasts Renewed Investment Interest in Bulgaria UniCredit Bulbank's chief economist Kristofor Pavlov. Photo by Capital

Investment interest towards Bulgaria is set to start growing slowly after the summer of 2012, according to the chief economist of UniCredit Bulbank Kristofor Pavlov.

The increased messages about the resolving of the euro zone crisis, and especially the reduced likelihood that Greece will abandon the euro are going to be an indication for the Bulgarian companies and households, Pavlov told the Euroclub at the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry on Wednesday.

"First of all, however, the improvement of outside conditions will influence the Bulgarian economy through the channeling of expectations," he stated.

The chief economist of UniCredit Bulbank stressed that employment will be stabilized by the unfreezing of firms' investment projects in 2012 but that a more tangible improvement in the employment environment is to come after 2013.

"Households will start changing their attitude by putting off less their purchases of long-term goods. In accord with the increase of the consumer demand, the demand for credit will start growing relative to the unsatisfactory levels at present," Pavlov explained.

According to UniCredit Bulbank, Bulgaria's quarter-on-quarter growth rate will grow to 0.5%-0.7% in the last two quarters of 2012, up from the almost zero quarterly growth at the end of 2011. Its GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria in 2012, however, is 1.5%, which is lower than the 2% that the country achieved in 2011.

"The start of the year will test the Bulgarian economy. The worsening external environment will affected exports negatively," Pavlov said, stressing that the declining real estate prices will be one of the hurdles for the Bulgarian economy.

"We have ahead of us two or even three years in which Bulgaria's economic growth will be lower than its potential, with alternating periods of slowdowns and growth," he explained.

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Tags: Kristofor Pavlov, Unicredit, UniCredit Bulbank, UniCredit Bulbank AD, GDP growth, economic growth, forecast, employment, investments, investment

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