DEUTSCHE BANK: BULGARIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME EU MEMBER IN 2007

Business | April 19, 2002, Friday // 00:00

The authors of the latest Deutsche Bank report believe that 2007 is a realistic year for Bulgaria's entry in the EU. At the end of 2001 the new government tightened the fiscal policy as it faced an increasing current account deficit, as a result of which the deficit was reduced from a target of 1.5% to 0.9%, the report says. The Deutsche Bank analysts hope that the deficit on the external current account will stay at manageable levels, financed largely by the influx of foreign investment. Foreign investment is expected to shrink to 850 million dollars (6% of the GDP) in 2002, 880 million dollars (5.7% of the GDP) in 2003 and some 5% in the medium term. Deutsche Bank expects a reduction of the debt/DGP ratio in the medium term as a result of the debt management scheme applied by the government and the expected 4% DGP growth this year. The DGP growth is expected to reach 5.5% by 2005. Compounded by the successful sale of the state telecom and the tobacco holding Bulgartabac, this could lead to an upgrade of the country's credit rating at the end of this year or the beginning of next year, the report forecasts.
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