Reuters

When Bulgaria's former king returned from exile last year promising to make his impoverished people better off within 800 days, the political novice was hailed as a national saviour.

But just nine months after he swept to power at the helm of a motley bunch of bankers, lawyers, models and even a magician, Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg is facing a public backlash and his fractious movement is coming apart at the seams.

The lure of a possible invitation to join Nato in November is likely to hold it together for now, but analysts say a cabinet praised by the West for its commitment to reform may be reshuffled to placate voters clamouring for rapid improvements.

"The final deadline for this government to try and change things is in October because after November anything could happen, including an early election," one Western diplomat said.

Bulgarians, among the poorest people in Europe with average monthly salaries of about $100, have taken to the streets in protest at the painful economic reforms that have won praise from the European Union, which the country is desperate to join.

But its efforts to speed up EU accession could be set back if growing discontent, echoed by five deputies who have resigned from the ruling party, forces the government to make poverty alleviation its priority rather than reform.

"Tensions within the NMS (National Movement for Simeon II) are growing," said Reinhard Cluse, an analyst at Commerzbank in London. "These developments could put the government's reform commitment to a serious test over the coming months."

TIMEBOMB TICKING: The government's popularity has slumped since last summer, when it enjoyed approval ratings of almost 70 percent. That figure has since halved, according to a survey published by polling agency MBMD at the weekend.

A poll by the Bulgarian branch of Gallup was even bleaker, showing just 28 percent of people had confidence in the cabinet after reforms pushed up electricity and heating prices over the winter beyond levels that those on state pensions could afford.

Government in-fighting about how to respond has made the situation even more explosive, particularly after Saxe-Coburg tried to sack the NMS members who criticised his policies.

"The cabinet's boat has been rocking in waves of scandals in recent months. Most Bulgarians believe its pledges exist only on paper," MBMD head Mira Yanova wrote in the 24 Chassa newspaper.

The walkouts by government critics has not yet endangered its majority in parliament, where it still holds 135 of the chamber's 240 seats in a coalition with an ethnic Turk party.

But the growing unease in the NMS has clearly unsettled its leader, who said last week he would transform his disparate grouping into a proper political party in early April in a bid to establish more control over it before others rebelled.

Bulgarian commentators expect most political forces, including the opposition, to avoid attempts to topple the government for the next eight months, lest it scupper Sofia's improving chances of winning an invitation to join Nato.

"But if the government fails to take matters into its own hands and if the premier fails to consolidate his own parliamentary group, then we may see signs of crises even before November," political analyst Ivan Krastev warned.

LIMITED OPTIONS: The easiest way for Saxe-Coburg to buy back some goodwill with those who elected him would be to remove the young former investment bankers who run an economic policy team praised for efforts to spur growth, cut debt and attack corruption.

Finance Minister Milen Velchev and Economy Minister Nikolai Vassilev have become popular scapegoats for Bulgaria's high unemployment and low per capita income levels, even though the economy grew by 4.9 percent last year despite a global slowdown.

But analysts say the ex-king would be shooting himself in the foot by sacking them because it would dent his reform credentials and his hopes of accelerating EU membership talks.

"There is growing speculation about a reshuffle that might involve key figures of the economic policy team," Commerzbank's Cluse said. "This could cast a shadow on Bulgaria's reform outlook as they enjoy high respect here in London."

Given the need to avoid instability in pursuing Bulgaria's other top priority, joining Nato, and the NMS's dire ratings, an early election would be even clearer political suicide, leaving the government few options but to soldier on with minor changes.

"A government reshuffle would have some effect only if it concerned key members of its economic team," one Western diplomat stressed. "But it is unlikely to happen, so any other changes will just be cosmetic."