Following is an excerpt from the report "Nato’s Enlargement and European Security" of the Wilton Park, agency with Britain's Foreign Office for discussion of international issues:

For those advocating entry of the Balkan candidates, Bulgaria and Romania, into the Alliance, the changing international security situation has strengthened rather than weakened their case. They note that the emerging consensus against international terrorism and the US presence in Central Asia have both received important support in the Balkan region. Furthermore, inclusion of the Balkan candidates will: contribute to the establishment of a ‘terrorist-free space’ in Europe; ensure that there is no ‘grey zone’ in Europe where interstate rivalries could develop; help to underpin security in Central and Eastern Europe; support the states in their efforts to proceed with market economy development and democratisation; prevent any intensification of divisions and rivalries between Balkan states; provide a transit and logistics centre for the Alliance and the United States in their war on terrorism.

It is also argued that the Balkan candidates should be granted membership because they have met the criteria set by the Alliance as preconditions for entry. Thus, it is argued that they have: established truly democratic regimes underpinned by related values and political culture; adopted Western economic practices; worked to meet required human rights standards. NATO membership will facilitate the consolidation of these domestic reforms; in Romania’s case, its chairing of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has demonstrated a political maturity which bodes well for its future Alliance membership. Furthermore, a failure to achieve entry could undermine recent progress, lead to social unrest and political extremism, and generate frictions between neighbouring states, not least if some are inside and others outside the Alliance.

This type of argument gives others cause for concern. They note that NATO needs to be careful about including new members whose internal politics remain fragile. Furthermore, they note that, whatever the strengths of current reforms in their armed forces, neither of the Balkan countries will contribute much militarily which the Alliance does not already possess in abundance. Others note that Romania and Bulgaria are the two largest countries currently under consideration and that this fact is important in the context of NATO’s capacity to absorb a large number of new members; taking in large countries which are deemed to be insufficiently reformed is, at best, a dubious proposition for some. This said, the ‘arguments in favour’ seem likely to prevail; among the most telling are: the help given to the US post-September 11; the development of effective rapid reaction forces; the geo-political benefits of including members on the Western Black Sea littoral; the view that potential costs of rejection for the Alliance outweigh those of inclusion.