BTA
With the next presidential elections less than a week away, analysts are cautious in their forecasts despite incumbent President Petur Stoyanov's considerable lead in the polls. Surveys show that Stoyanov is likely to garner between 35 per cent and 46 per cent of the votes. Most observers predict that the November 11 vote will be followed by a run-off.
The opposition Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) and the ruling Simeon II National Movement (SNM) have announced their support for Stoyanov, who is running for re-election as an independent candidate. At the beginning of the election campaign a month ago, many took Stoyanov's future victory for granted.
Presently, the vote is expected with greater excitement as the outcome is less obvious.
These will be the third direct elections for president in Bulgaria. In 1992 and 1996, the head of state was elected in runoffs from among candidates of the UDF and the Socialist Party.
Two issues have become topics for speculation. First, under the Constitution, a candidate for president is considered elected in the first round of voting if the voter turnout is
larger than 50 per cent. Latest surveys show that a second round is possible precisely because the turnout may be low. One of the reasons for the expectedly light voting is that early predictions about an outright victory for Stoyanov have demotivated part of his electorate from going to the polls. Even if the voter turnout exceeds 50 per cent, a first-round victory will be constitutionally recognized only if a candidate has polled more than half of the votes, which, in this case, is less than certain.
Second, observers are speculating about Stoyanov's likely opponent in a possible run-off. The position of the runner-up will probably be contested by Socialist Party leader and Coalition for Bulgaria candidate Georgi Purvanov (current support rate 15-18%), and former interior minister and candidate of the Citizens' Party for Bulgaria Bogomil Bonev (current support rate 13-17%). Leading polling agencies have reported a slight decline in Stoyanov's support rate and a slow upward trend for both Purvanov and Bonev.
"The presidential race is coming to a sensational end," Andrei Raichev of BBSS Gallup International said on bTV on Sunday. Raichev predicted a run-off for Stoyanov and Bonev. The analyst said the electorates of the two are like communicating vessels and ascribed Bonev's growing popularity to his success in building an image associated with the notion of positive change. To Stoyanov's campaign poster motto "Our President,"
Bonev has counterposed "The Strong President."
Bonev, who was interior minister in the government of the UDF-dominated United Democratic Forces (UtdDF) coalition until December 1999 and, before that, President Stoyanov's secretary for national security, has attacked Stoyanov several times during the current campaign, primarily in connection with the alleged corruption of the UtdDF government (1997-2001). This past weekend, Bonev accused Stoyanov of accepting a donation worth over 1 million leva from Michael Chorny, the infamous international businessman who has been expelled from Bulgaria. The donation was allegedly used to organize the All-Bulgarian Gathering at Mt Rozhen in the summer of 2000, held under the President's patronage. According to Bonev, that was the time when Stoyanov's election campaign actually began.
On Monday, Prosecutor General Nikola Filchev said that a check conducted by the prosecuting authorities a year ago did not detect any financial irregularities related to the Rozhen gathering. Filchev said it is unacceptable to use the President as "cannon-fodder" and a target of slander.
Having named Purvanov as candidate for president, the Left expects to garner more votes in the upcoming elections than in the June 2001 parliamentary elections, when Coalition for Bulgaria ended up as the third-largest force, behind the SNM and the UtdDF.
It is still unclear whom the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) will back in the event of a run-off. Reneta Indzhova, whose ticket is supported by the largely ethnic Turks's party, is not expected to poll more than 3 per cent of the votes. Purvanov has said he expects the MRF to back him in a run-off.
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